Incidence Rates and Time Trends of Pancreatic Cancer in the Golestan Province, Northeastern Iran, 2006-2019.

Background: Pancreatic cancer (PC) is one of the most malignant cancers with a poor prognosis. Despite advances in the diagnosis and management of PC, the survival rate remains low. In Iran, the incidence of PC is increasing, with mortality rates nearly doubling over the past 25 years. Therefore, this study was designed to assess the temporal variations and incidence of PC in Golestan province, as a prominent hub for gastrointestinal cancers in Iran.

Methods: In this cross-sectional study, patient information was obtained from the Golestan Population-Based Cancer Registry (GPCR) from 2006 to 2019. We calculated age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) using the World standard population and reported the rates per 100000 persons-year. To compare ASRs across sexes and residence areas, incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated using Poisson regression models. We calculated the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) to assess time trends in incidence rates of PC in Golestan during the study period.

Results: Among a total of 560 PC new cases (mean age of 63.72 years), 46.61% were diagnosed through clinical or paraclinical methods. The crude incidence rate and ASR were 2.24 and 2.95 (95% CI: 2.70‒3.20) per 100000 persons-year, respectively. The ASR of PC was significantly higher in males (3.78; 95% CI: 3.37‒4.19) than females (2.17; 95% CI: 1.88‒2.46) (IRR=1.71; P<0.01). The ASR was higher in the urban (3.23; 95% CI: 2.88‒3.58) compared to the rural population (2.65; 95% CI: 2.30‒3.00) (IRR=1.23; P=0.02). The ASR of PC increased from 1.97 to 3.53 during 2006 to 2019 with an EAPC of 4.39 (95% CI: -3.56 to 12.75). The EAPCs were 4.85% and 4.37% in women and men, respectively.

Conclusion: Our study showed that the incidence of PC is increasing in the Golestan province. Also, the incidence rate was higher in men, elderly people, and the urban population.