The potential of electric agriculture and mobility for the least-cost rural electrification strategy in Sub-Saharan Africa

Electrification is a crucial driver of rural development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), yet progress is often impeded by low demand density, particularly for grid extension. Despite the promising potential of stand-alone and mini-grid systems, rural areas frequently lag behind due to their low economic viability in electrification. Simultaneously, the mechanization of agriculture and the motorization of transport offer the opportunity to increase economic activity. This publication explores the role of electric vehicles (EVs) and electric tractors (ETs) in rural electrification scenarios.

We present a methodology to quantify the theoretical impact of EVs and ETs on SSA’s electrification strategies, applied specifically to Nigeria and Chad. Our simulations in Nigeria reveal that not only supply options with higher capacity are needed, but that EVs have the potential to lower the cost of electricity (LCOE) by an average of 54 %, and ETs have the potential to reduce LCOE by 49 %, depending on local mobility and mechanization demand. Rural areas with significant cropland particularly benefit from using ETs to achieve cheaper electricity access. In Chad, where grid infrastructure is minimal, our assessment shows that EVs and ETs can significantly influence least-cost electrification strategies. By 2030, mini-grids will become the least-cost supply option for 60 % of the newly connected population, compared to just 13 % when only residential demand is considered.

Our methodology advances the widely used ONSSET electrification planning model to estimate the maximum joint potential of electrified agriculture, electric mobility and adapted rural electrification strategies. Our approach involves geospatially estimating energy demands using macroscopic available population, land cover, and infrastructure data. The findings underscore the importance of jointly implementing EVs and ETs and electrification strategies for technology leapfrogging, highlighting the economic viability and potential of EVs and ETs in rural scenarios. The results provide policymakers with quantitative indicators on the impact of the implementation for Nigeria and Chad.