Assessing the risk of pedestrian crossing behavior on suburban roads using structural equation model

While pedestrian crashes on suburban roads have received more attention over recent years, the role of pedestrian crossing risk in areas adjacent to pedestrian crossing facilities, such as pedestrian overpasses, has been neglected. Most pedestrians in suburban areas tend to avoid pedestrian overpasses, exhibiting crossing behaviors that increase the likelihood of pedestrian-involving crashes. As a result of the presence of overpasses, drivers may think that there are no pedestrians in the surroundings, so they choose a speed based only on the prevailing traffic and road environment without accounting for potential interactions with pedestrians. Consequently, crashes will occur, with pedestrians typically being the most seriously affected casualties. In this study, using video recordings from a suburban road in Amol-Babol, Iran, the risk of pedestrian crossing behavior in areas near pedestrian overpasses is investigated. The speed selection behavior of drivers in these areas has also been examined using speedometer cameras. To quantify the level of risk for pedestrians when interacting with approaching vehicles during the crossing movements, the post encroachment time (PET) was used as a surrogate safety measure. Based on critical thresholds of PET, three different risk levels were identified using a K-means algorithm: high, medium, and low risk. To identify the elements affecting the risk of pedestrian crossing behavior, structural equation models were estimated for all three risk levels. The results showed that human factors, relating to both drivers and pedestrians, have a dominant impact on pedestrian safety, especially in high and medium risk contexts. Road and vehicle factors were also found to have statistically observable effects on pedestrian safety, but to a milder extent compared to human factors. The findings of this study highlight the need for intervening in several aspects of vehicle-pedestrian interactions with critical importance for pedestrian safety, including road users’ performance and compliance, state of alertness, and interaction with road infrastructure.