中国的气候变化适应:城乡居民用电量的差异

IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Energy Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107958
Yefei Sun , Michael Hanemann
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们利用家庭层面的高频用电数据(1758 万个观测值),对中国南方家庭用电量与气温之间的关系进行了参数化。我们发现,虽然城市家庭比农村家庭对极端气温更敏感,但随着气候变暖,农村家庭会采取适应气候变化的行为(如安装空调),农村家庭对气温的敏感度会显著增加。考虑到长期响应,我们发现在 RCP8.5 情景下预测的气候变暖将导致 2061-2080 年农村和城市家庭夏季高峰用电量分别增加 23.42% 和 22.28%。与短期响应结果相比,忽略长期响应将导致农村和城市家庭夏季高峰用电量被低估 56.13 % 和 20.11 %。仅就我们的研究样本而言,在 RCP 8.5 情景下,2061-2080 年气候变暖对农村和城市造成的经济损失分别高达 13.58 亿元和 6.17 亿元。气候变化将给农村居民带来严重损失。
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Climate change adaptation in China: Differences in electricity consumption between rural and urban residents
We use high-frequency electricity consumption data (17.58 million observations) at level of household to parameterize the relationship between household electricity consumption and temperature for southern China. We find that although urban households are more sensitive to extreme temperature than rural households, with climate warming, rural households would adopt climate change adaptive behavior (e.g. installing air-conditioning), and rural households' sensitivity to temperature would increase significantly. Considering the long-run response, we find that climate warming as predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario would lead to an increase of 23.42 % and 22.28 % in the summer peak electricity consumption of rural and urban households in 2061–2080. Compared with the results of short-run response, ignoring the long-run response would lead to the summer peak electricity consumption of rural and urban households being underestimated by 56.13 % and 20.11 %. Only for our research sample, the economic losses in rural and urban areas caused by climate warming are as high as 1.358 billion Chinese yuan and 0.617 billion Chinese yuan in 2061–2080 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Climate change would bring serious losses to rural residents.
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来源期刊
Energy Economics
Energy Economics ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
18.60
自引率
12.50%
发文量
524
期刊介绍: Energy Economics is a field journal that focuses on energy economics and energy finance. It covers various themes including the exploitation, conversion, and use of energy, markets for energy commodities and derivatives, regulation and taxation, forecasting, environment and climate, international trade, development, and monetary policy. The journal welcomes contributions that utilize diverse methods such as experiments, surveys, econometrics, decomposition, simulation models, equilibrium models, optimization models, and analytical models. It publishes a combination of papers employing different methods to explore a wide range of topics. The journal's replication policy encourages the submission of replication studies, wherein researchers reproduce and extend the key results of original studies while explaining any differences. Energy Economics is indexed and abstracted in several databases including Environmental Abstracts, Fuel and Energy Abstracts, Social Sciences Citation Index, GEOBASE, Social & Behavioral Sciences, Journal of Economic Literature, INSPEC, and more.
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