The effects of population aging on industrial structure upgrading: Empirical analysis of provincial and threshold characteristics in China

Global population aging trends are intensifying, presenting multifaceted economic and social challenges for countries worldwide. As the world’s largest developing country, China has entered a phase of extreme demographic aging, posing significant questions about its impact on the ongoing upgrading of industrial structures. How does this demographic shift influence the upgrading of industrial structures, and does technological innovation mitigate or exacerbate this impact? The empirical results indicate that population aging impedes upgrading the industrial structure, while technological innovation positively affects the relationship between the two. Moreover, using technological innovation as a threshold variable, the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading evolves in a “gradient” manner from “impediment” to “insignificant” to “promotion” as the technological innovation levels increase. These findings offer practical guidance for tailoring industrial policies to different stages of technological advancement.