Evaluation of the coordination-difference-driven sustainability of 12 urban agglomerations in China based on the dynamic probability weighting method

The sustainable development of urban agglomerations represents a significant driving force in national and global development. This study establishes an indicator system comprising factors associated with the economy, society, and environment, in accordance with the Triple Bottom Line, to assess the sustainability of 12 urban agglomerations in China. A novel framework is proposed, including a dynamic probability weighting method based on sufficient stochastic simulations and a coordination-difference-driven aggregation approach that considers the coordination degree and differences between evaluated objects. The evaluation revealed significant regional disparities in urban agglomeration sustainability from 2012 to 2021. The eastern region's Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, and Shandong Peninsula exhibit above-average sustainability performance. Conversely, the western region's Guangzhong, Guangxi Beibu Gulf, Chengyu, and Ningxia Yellow River regions exhibit below-average performance. Moreover, the growth rate of sustainability values for the 12 urban agglomerations followed a downward trajectory. Furthermore, the environmental dimension is the primary driver of sustainable development in urban agglomerations, while the economic dimension represents the main obstacle. These findings offer policymakers a scientific and practical framework to guide sustainability-related decisions.