Uncertainty sensitivity analysis for vibration properties of composite doubly-curved shallow shells using Kriging method

This paper presents a Kriging based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) method for the frequency response of displacements of composite doubly-curved shallow shells. A unified solution is utilized to develop the dynamic vibration formulation using the First-order Shear Deformation Theory (FSDT) and the Rayleigh–Ritz method. Kriging surrogate model is employed to substitute the frequency response function (FRF) of displacements. Ten parameters including materials and geometrical dimension are considered as input uncertain variables. A variance-based GSA method for dynamic model is employed to quantify the influence of each uncertain parameter. In addition, to avoid the computational burden of Monte Carlo simulation method (MCS), the presented sensitivity indices are computed analytically based on the Kriging mode, which further improves computational efficiency. Based on the convergence studies and comparison with traditional methods, the accuracy and efficiency of the present method are validated. The results shows that the frequency response of displacements exhibits greater sensitivity to changes in width, and thickness is more influential than others in the example from this article. Finally, the presented numerical results demonstrate vibration characteristics of different types of shells and observation points, which can also serve as a reference for further study on uncertainty-propagation analysis.