Development and validation of a renal involvement model for patients with hyperuricemia: A cross-sectional study

Objective

To construct a prediction model for renal involvement in patients with hyperuricemia (HUA) based on logistic regression analysis, to achieve early risk stratification.

Method

In this cross-sectional study, we collected data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), and constructed a predicted model for renal involvement in HUA patients. The discriminative ability of the model was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Model accuracy was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curve, while clinical utility was assessed using decision curve analysis (DCA). Furthermore, internal and external validation cohorts were also applied to validate the model.

Results

A total of 1669 patients from NHANES between 2007 and 2010 were included in the final analysis for modeling and validation. Six predictive factors including age, Systolic Blood Pressure (SBP), Diastolic Blood Pressure (DBP), Cr, Uric Acid (UA), and sex were identified by binary logistic regression analysis for renal involvement in HUA patients and used to construct a nomogram with good consistency and accuracy. The AUC values for the predictive model, internal validation, and external validation were 0.881 (95% CI: 0.836–0.926), 0.908 (95% CI: 0.871–0.944), and 0.927 (95% CI: 0.897–0.957), respectively. The calibration curves demonstrated consistency between the nomogram and observed values. The DCA curves of the model and validation cohort indicated good clinical utility.

Conclusion

This study developed a predictive model for renal involvement in hyperuricemia patients with strong predictive performance and validated by internal and external cohorts, aiding in the early detection of high-risk populations for renal involvement.