Dynamic integrated simulation of carbon emission reduction potential in China's building sector

The building sector has received increasing attention due to its significant contribution to carbon emissions and great reduction potential. With continuous technology implementation, it is critical to identify the trajectories of emissions and potential reduction for China's building sector to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets. This study develops an integrated model by combining the system dynamics (SD) model and the long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model to estimate energy consumption and carbon emissions of different types of buildings. The LEAP model is constructed based on the predictions from the SD model, which identifies the critical activity level parameters including number of households and building stocks by type. Coupled with scenario analysis, the model is applied to simulate the building emissions reduction potential and the contribution of five mitigation technologies across four scenarios. The results indicate that carbon emissions will peak at 2.80 Billion tons (Bt) in 2032 under the business as usual scenario (BAS). By 2060, reductions of 28.55 %, 59.03 %, and 76.53 % will be achieved under the advanced technology scenario (ATS), intersectoral synergistic scenario (ISS), and continuous improvement scenario (CIS), respectively. Among the five technologies, electrification and efficient end-use device technologies contribute the greatest reductions of 0.16 Bt and 0.23 Bt, respectively. Under the CIS, carbon emissions will advance toward 2024 with a peak of 2.47 Bt. This study not only provides a theoretical tool for energy and emissions analysis but also formulates targeted technology roadmaps for building sector emission mitigation.