根据表层海洋数据产品构建的海气二氧化碳通量不确定性综合分析

IF 5.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Global Biogeochemical Cycles Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI:10.1029/2024GB008188
Daniel J. Ford, Josh Blannin, Jennifer Watts, Andrew J. Watson, Peter Landschützer, Annika Jersild, Jamie D. Shutler
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引用次数: 0

摘要

大气中不断增加的人为二氧化碳排放量通过二氧化碳的海气交换及其随后向深海的移动被部分封存到全球海洋中,这就是通常所说的全球海洋碳汇。对海洋碳汇进行量化是关闭全球碳预算的一个关键组成部分,用于为政策决策提供信息和指导。这些估算通常伴随着不确定性预算,不确定性预算是在选择性实验的基础上选择被认为是关键的不确定性成分而建立的。然而,越来越多的人意识到这些预算是不完整的,可能被低估了,这限制了它们在全球预算中的约束作用。在本研究中,我们提出了一种方法,用于量化基于 fCO2 产品评估的空气-海洋 CO2 通量计算中空间和时间变化的不确定性,该方法允许对所有已知的不确定性来源进行详尽评估,包括网格测量之间的相关长度尺度,并且该方法遵循标准的不确定性传播方法。由此得出的标准不确定性高于之前建议的预算,但各组成部分的贡献与之前的工作基本一致。本研究提出的不确定性确定了关键要素的重要性在空间和时间上的变化。对于一种示例方法(UExP-FNN-U 方法),研究发现我们目前可以估算出每年海洋碳汇的精度为 ±0.70 Pg C yr-1(不确定性为 1σ)。由于该方法建立在既定的不确定性传播和方法之上,因此似乎适用于对海洋碳汇的所有 fCO2 产物评估。
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A Comprehensive Analysis of Air-Sea CO2 Flux Uncertainties Constructed From Surface Ocean Data Products

Increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere are partially sequestered into the global oceans through the air-sea exchange of CO2 and its subsequent movement to depth, commonly referred to as the global ocean carbon sink. Quantifying this ocean carbon sink provides a key component for closing the global carbon budget, which is used to inform and guide policy decisions. These estimates are typically accompanied by an uncertainty budget built by selecting what are perceived as critical uncertainty components based on selective experimentation. However, there is a growing realization that these budgets are incomplete and may be underestimated, which limits their power as a constraint within global budgets. In this study, we present a methodology for quantifying spatially and temporally varying uncertainties in the air-sea CO2 flux calculations for the fCO2-product based assessments that allows an exhaustive assessment of all known sources of uncertainties, including decorrelation length scales between gridded measurements, and the approach follows standard uncertainty propagation methodologies. The resulting standard uncertainties are higher than previously suggested budgets, but the component contributions are largely consistent with previous work. The uncertainties presented in this study identify how the significance and importance of key components change in space and time. For an exemplar method (the UExP-FNN-U method), the work identifies that we can currently estimate the annual ocean carbon sink to a precision of ±0.70 Pg C yr−1 (1σ uncertainty). Because this method has been built on established uncertainty propagation and approaches, it appears that applicable to all fCO2-product assessments of the ocean carbon sink.

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来源期刊
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Global Biogeochemical Cycles 环境科学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
8.90
自引率
7.70%
发文量
141
审稿时长
8-16 weeks
期刊介绍: Global Biogeochemical Cycles (GBC) features research on regional to global biogeochemical interactions, as well as more local studies that demonstrate fundamental implications for biogeochemical processing at regional or global scales. Published papers draw on a wide array of methods and knowledge and extend in time from the deep geologic past to recent historical and potential future interactions. This broad scope includes studies that elucidate human activities as interactive components of biogeochemical cycles and physical Earth Systems including climate. Authors are required to make their work accessible to a broad interdisciplinary range of scientists.
期刊最新文献
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