The role of economic evaluation in modelling public health and social measures for pandemic policy: a systematic review.

Background: Dynamic transmission models are often used to provide epidemiological guidance for pandemic policy decisions. However, how economic evaluation is typically incorporated into this technique to generate cost-effectiveness estimates of pandemic policy responses has not previously been reviewed.

Methods: We systematically searched the Embase, PubMed and Scopus databases for dynamic epidemiological modelling studies that incorporated economic evaluation of public health and social measures (PHSMs), with no date restrictions, on 7 July 2024.

Results: Of the 2,719 screened studies, 51 met the inclusion criteria. Most studies (n = 42, 82%) modelled SARS-CoV-2. A range of PHSMs were examined, including school closures, testing/screening, social distancing and mask use. Half of the studies utilised an extension of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model. The most common type of economic evaluation was cost-effectiveness analysis (n = 24, 47%), followed by cost-utility analysis (n = 17, 33%) and cost-benefit analysis (n = 17, 33%).

Conclusions: Economic evaluation is infrequently incorporated into dynamic epidemiological modelling studies of PHSMs. The scope of this research should be expanded, given the substantial cost implications of pandemic PHSM policy responses.