{"title":"模拟和评估能源供应对中断事件的动态适应能力:中国石油供应中断案例","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108013","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy supply disruptions can have unpredictable and significant economic impacts, making supply resilience a critical concern for policymakers. Assessing and improving supply resilience have become necessary to make energy policies more effective. This study aimed to develop a model for resilience assessment and enhancement. First, we created a Mixed-Supply-side Dynamic Inoperability Input–output Model (M-SDIIM), which could calculate sectors' dynamic inoperability and economic losses under import or production disruptions. Second, a dynamic supply resilience curve was established using M-SDIIM, and the calculating method for robustness and recoverability was used to visualise the resilience characteristics. Finally, given the practical significance of oil security, we incorporated the strategic stock strategy into M-SDIIM to construct a resilience enhancement model. Using the developed model, we conducted a case study of China's oil supply disruption. The results demonstrated that M-SDIIM effectively assessed the energy supply resilience of interdependent infrastructure. In an extremely large oil disruption event, the resilience curves of all sectors in China showed a typical U-shape; however, significant differences were apparent in the robustness and recoverability of the sectors, with six sectors, including Petroleum processing, Transport and Chemical products, among the most vulnerable. Second, the resilience enhancement model enabled a quantitative assessment of strategies, providing a clear improvement target. In China, more than the current stock levels are needed; at least 73-day crude oil imports are required. 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First, we created a Mixed-Supply-side Dynamic Inoperability Input–output Model (M-SDIIM), which could calculate sectors' dynamic inoperability and economic losses under import or production disruptions. Second, a dynamic supply resilience curve was established using M-SDIIM, and the calculating method for robustness and recoverability was used to visualise the resilience characteristics. Finally, given the practical significance of oil security, we incorporated the strategic stock strategy into M-SDIIM to construct a resilience enhancement model. Using the developed model, we conducted a case study of China's oil supply disruption. The results demonstrated that M-SDIIM effectively assessed the energy supply resilience of interdependent infrastructure. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
能源供应中断会产生不可预测的重大经济影响,因此能源供应的恢复能力成为政策制定者关注的关键问题。为了使能源政策更加有效,有必要评估和提高供应恢复能力。本研究旨在开发一个复原力评估和增强模型。首先,我们创建了一个混合供应方动态不可操作性投入产出模型(M-SDIIM),该模型可计算进口或生产中断情况下各部门的动态不可操作性和经济损失。其次,利用 M-SDIIM 建立了动态供应弹性曲线,并利用稳健性和可恢复性的计算方法将弹性特征可视化。最后,考虑到石油安全的现实意义,我们将战略储备战略纳入 M-SDIIM,构建了弹性增强模型。利用所开发的模型,我们对中国石油供应中断进行了案例研究。结果表明,M-SDIIM 能够有效评估相互依存的基础设施的能源供应弹性。在特大石油供应中断事件中,中国所有部门的恢复力曲线都呈现出典型的 U 型;但各部门的稳健性和可恢复性存在明显差异,其中石油加工、运输和化工产品等六个部门最为脆弱。其次,复原力增强模型能够对战略进行量化评估,提供明确的改进目标。在中国,需要的不仅仅是目前的库存水平;至少需要 73 天的原油进口量。因此,我们提出了有针对性的政策建议,以帮助各国制定能源政策。
Modelling and assessing dynamic energy supply resilience to disruption events: An oil supply disruption case in China
Energy supply disruptions can have unpredictable and significant economic impacts, making supply resilience a critical concern for policymakers. Assessing and improving supply resilience have become necessary to make energy policies more effective. This study aimed to develop a model for resilience assessment and enhancement. First, we created a Mixed-Supply-side Dynamic Inoperability Input–output Model (M-SDIIM), which could calculate sectors' dynamic inoperability and economic losses under import or production disruptions. Second, a dynamic supply resilience curve was established using M-SDIIM, and the calculating method for robustness and recoverability was used to visualise the resilience characteristics. Finally, given the practical significance of oil security, we incorporated the strategic stock strategy into M-SDIIM to construct a resilience enhancement model. Using the developed model, we conducted a case study of China's oil supply disruption. The results demonstrated that M-SDIIM effectively assessed the energy supply resilience of interdependent infrastructure. In an extremely large oil disruption event, the resilience curves of all sectors in China showed a typical U-shape; however, significant differences were apparent in the robustness and recoverability of the sectors, with six sectors, including Petroleum processing, Transport and Chemical products, among the most vulnerable. Second, the resilience enhancement model enabled a quantitative assessment of strategies, providing a clear improvement target. In China, more than the current stock levels are needed; at least 73-day crude oil imports are required. Thus, we propose targeted policy recommendations to assist countries in formulating energy policies.
期刊介绍:
Energy Economics is a field journal that focuses on energy economics and energy finance. It covers various themes including the exploitation, conversion, and use of energy, markets for energy commodities and derivatives, regulation and taxation, forecasting, environment and climate, international trade, development, and monetary policy. The journal welcomes contributions that utilize diverse methods such as experiments, surveys, econometrics, decomposition, simulation models, equilibrium models, optimization models, and analytical models. It publishes a combination of papers employing different methods to explore a wide range of topics. The journal's replication policy encourages the submission of replication studies, wherein researchers reproduce and extend the key results of original studies while explaining any differences. Energy Economics is indexed and abstracted in several databases including Environmental Abstracts, Fuel and Energy Abstracts, Social Sciences Citation Index, GEOBASE, Social & Behavioral Sciences, Journal of Economic Literature, INSPEC, and more.