Oral Cancer Incidence Among Adult Males With Current or Former Use of Cigarettes or Smokeless Tobacco: Population-Based Study.

Background: Tobacco use has been identified as a risk factor for oral cancer worldwide. However, relative oral cancer incidence among adults who smoke cigarettes, use smokeless tobacco products (ST), have transitioned from cigarettes to ST, quit cigarettes and/or ST ("quitters"), or never used tobacco has not been well studied.

Objective: We aim to present population-based oral cancer incidence rates for adults who smoke cigarettes, use ST, are former smokers who now use ST, or quit.

Methods: We estimated cross-sectional incidence rates and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) using data from statewide cancer registries (Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Texas) and population counts derived from national surveys using combined data from 2014-2017. A random-effect meta-analysis approach was used to summarize estimates among these groups, based on multiple imputation-based IRR estimates by state and age group while considering potential heterogeneity.

Results: A total of 19,536 oral cancer cases were identified among adult males 35 years and older in the study geographies and period. The oral cancer incidence rate among adults who smoke was significantly higher than the ST group (2.6 times higher, 95% CI 2.0-3.3, P<.001), 3.6 (95% CI 3.2-4.1, P<.001) times higher than the never users, and 2.4 (95% CI 1.8-3.1, P<.001) times higher compared to former smokers who now use ST. The IRR among the ST group relative to never users was 1.4 (95% CI 1.1-1.9, P=.02). The IRR between former smokers who now use ST and those who quit was 1.4 (95% CI 1.0-2.1, P=.08).

Conclusions: Findings from this population-based study with a large number of oral cancer cases support significantly high oral cancer incidence among adults who smoke and a lower risk of oral cancer incidence among never users, quitters, users of ST, and former smokers who now use ST compared to cigarettes. Future studies with detailed control of tobacco history and other relevant confounders are needed to confirm these findings.