Fraction of Cancer Attributable to Carcinogenic Drugs in Korea from 2015 to 2030.

Purpose: This study aims to estimate and project the Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) of cancer incidence and death due to carcinogenic drug use in Korea from 2015 to 2030, to estimate the degree of cancer prevention from exposure to carcinogenic drugs in Korea. Selected carcinogenic drugs were immunosuppressive and antineoplastic drugs classified as group I by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).

Materials and methods: Systematic review and meta-analyses were conducted to estimate the relative risk (RR) of cancer associated with carcinogenic drug use. Age was standardized using the annual prevalence rate of the National Health Insurance Service sample cohort (NHIS-NSC) from 2002 to 2013 to calculate the standardized prevalence rate of carcinogenic drug use each year. The PAF of specific cancer incidence and death were calculated using Levin's formula and Monte Carlo methods. The prevalence rates were extrapolated to estimate the trend of PAF from 2015 to 2030.

Results: In 2015, carcinogenic drugs attributed to 0.003% and 0.002% among the causes of cancer incidence and death in Korea. However, carcinogenic drugs attributed to 1.1% among the causes of both cancer incidence and death in patients with clinical indications of carcinogenic drugs.

Conclusion: The PAF in patients with clinical indications of carcinogenic drugs were significantly high and expected to increase rapidly over time. Since these drugs are listed as essential by the World Health Organization (WHO), and may be difficult to replace, a surveillance system on susceptible populations using group I carcinogenic drugs must be discussed and implemented.