Long-Term outcomes after stress echocardiography in real world practice: five-year follow-up of the UK Evarest study.

Aims: Stress echocardiography is widely used to assess patients with chest pain. The clinical value of a positive or negative test result to inform on likely longer-term outcomes when applied in real world practice across a healthcare system has not been previously reported.

Methods and results: 5503 patients recruited across 32 UK NHS hospitals between 2018 and 2022, participating in the EVAREST/BSE-NSTEP prospective cohort study, with data on medical outcomes up to 2023 available from NHS England were included in analysis. Stress echocardiography results were related to outcomes, including death, procedures, hospital admissions and relevant cardiovascular diagnoses, based on Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazard ratios. Median follow-up was 829 days (IQR 224-1434). A positive stress echocardiogram was associated with a greater risk of myocardial infarction (HR 2.71, 95% CI 1.73-4.24, P<0.001), and a composite endpoint of cardiac-related mortality and myocardial infarction (HR 2.03, 95% CI 1.41-2.93, P<0.001). Hazard ratios increased with ischaemic burden. A negative stress echocardiogram identified an event-free 'warranty period' of at least five years in patients with no prior history of coronary artery disease, and four years for those with disease.

Conclusions: In real-world practice, the degree of myocardial ischaemia recorded by clinicians at stress echocardiography correctly categorises risk of future events over the next five years. Reporting a stress echocardiogram as negative correctly identifies patients with no greater than a background risk of cardiovascular events over a similar time period.