[Predictors of adverse outcomes in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and pulmonary embolism and the predictive value of the simplified pulmonary embolism severity index].

Objective: To explore the relevant factors associated with poor prognosis in patients suffering from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) combined with pulmonary embolism (PE), and investigate the predictive value of the simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI) score on adverse outcomes in these patients. Methods: A total of 168 patients with COPD and PE who were treated at West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 1, 2018, to December 30, 2020 were retrospectively included. Patients were divided into adverse outcome group and control group based on the occurrence of adverse outcomes [any of the following events: in-hospital death, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and endotracheal intubation]. Correlation factors for poor prognosis were explored using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was employed to assess the predictive value of the sPESI score for adverse outcomes in COPD patients with PE. Results: A total of 168 patients were studied, with an age of (73.4±10.4) years and 119 male (70.8%). In the adverse outcome group, there were 18 cases (10.7%), including 12 in-hospital deaths, 6 ICU admission, and 1 endotracheal intubation. The control group comprised 150 cases (89.3%). Statistically significant differences were observed between two groups regarding the proportion of patients with diabetes, nephrotic syndrome, severe pneumonia, respiratory failure and lower extremity edema, and the pulse, diastolic blood pressure, pulse oxygen saturation, lactate dehydrogenase and cholesterol levels (all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that severe pneumonia, respiratory failure, lower extremity edema, and diastolic blood pressure<60 mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa) are correlative factors of adverse outcomes in patients with COPD complicated by PE [OR (95%CI) were 7.363 (1.053-51.772), 4.077 (1.030-16.133), 4.490 (1.131-17.832), and 8.060 (1.209-53.918), respectively, all P<0.05]. The sPESI score in the adverse outcome group was higher than that in the control group [M (Q₁, Q₃), 2 (2, 2) vs 1 (1, 2) score, P=0.006]; the optimal cutoff value for sPESI score was 2 score, the sensitivity was 77.8%, the specificity was 54.0%, and the area under the curve (AUC) and 95%CI were 0.681 (0.554-0.809) based on the ROC curve analysis. Patients with sPESI≥2 score exhibited a 4.109-fold (95%CI: 1.292-13.063, P=0.017) increased risk of adverse prognosis compared to those with sPESI<2 score. Conclusions: Patients with COPD combined with PE have a higher incidence of adverse prognostic outcomes. Severe pneumonia, respiratory failure, lower limb edema, and diastolic pressure<60 mmHg are associated factors for poor prognosis. The sPESI score has some value in predicting adverse outcomes in COPD patients with PE.