耦合传染病和行为动力学。模型假设回顾。

Andreas Reitenbach, Fabio Sartori, Sven Banisch, Anastasia Golovin, André Calero Valdez, Mirjam Kretzschmar, Viola Priesemann, Michael Mäs
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引用次数: 0

摘要

要理解传染病的传播动态,就必须将人类保护行为纳入疾病传播模型。虽然传染病模型和行为动力学模型都是独立存在的,但将这两方面结合起来的文献还没有形成一个完整的体系。这种整合对于深入了解信息道德的兴起、疫苗意见的两极分化以及大流行期间阴谋论的传播等现象至关重要。首先,我们引入了一个框架来描述传染病和行为动态的耦合模型,并划分了四种不同的更新函数。回顾现有文献,我们发现每种更新函数的实现方式都存在很大差异。这种差异,再加上模型比较的缺乏,使得研究人员在寻求开发针对特定人群、传染病和保护形式的模型时,很难从文献中获得有用的信息。第三,我们为未来的建模工作和实证研究提出了建议,旨在选择传染病和行为动态耦合模型。我们强调,将社会科学的实证方法纳入其中对推动文献发展非常重要。
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Coupled infectious disease and behavior dynamics. A review of model assumptions.

To comprehend the dynamics of infectious disease transmission, it is imperative to incorporate human protective behavior into models of disease spreading. While models exist for both infectious disease and behavior dynamics independently, the integration of these aspects has yet to yield a cohesive body of literature. Such an integration is crucial for gaining insights into phenomena like the rise of infodemics, the polarization of opinions regarding vaccines, and the dissemination of conspiracy theories during a pandemic. We make a threefold contribution. First, we introduce a framework todescribemodels coupling infectious disease and behavior dynamics, delineating four distinct update functions. Reviewing existing literature, we highlight a substantial diversity in the implementation of each update function. This variation, coupled with a dearth of model comparisons, renders the literature hardly informative for researchers seeking to develop models tailored to specific populations, infectious diseases, and forms of protection. Second, we advocate an approach tocomparingmodels' assumptions about human behavior, the model aspect characterized by the strongest disagreement. Rather than representing the psychological complexity of decision-making, we show that 'influence-response functions' allow one to identify which model differences generate different disease dynamics and which do not, guiding both model development and empirical research testing model assumptions. Third, we propose recommendations for future modeling endeavors and empirical research aimed atselectingmodels of coupled infectious disease and behavior dynamics. We underscore the importance of incorporating empirical approaches from the social sciences to propel the literature forward.

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