Using ecological niches to determine potential habitat suitability for Psacothea hilaris (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) and its natural enemies in China under future climates.

Climate change impacts the distribution of pests and its natural enemies, prompting this study to investigate the dynamics and shifts in distribution under current and future climate conditions. The spatial pattern of Psacothea hilaris (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in China was analyzed, and the MaxEnt model was optimized to predict the potential geographic distribution of P. hilaris and its two natural enemies (Dastarcus helophoroides (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Bothrideridae) and Dendrocopos major (Linnaeus) (Piciformes: Picidae)) in China, to further analyze the key environmental factors affecting the survival of P. hilaris and its natural enemies, and to determine the potential of using D. helophoroides and D. major as natural enemies to control P. hilaris. The results showed that the suitable ranges of P. hilaris and natural enemies are expanding under the influence of climate change, and both have migrated to higher latitudes. The potential ranges of D. helophoroides, D. major, and P. hilaris are highly similar. It is noteworthy that the potential range of D. helophoroides completely covers the potential range of P. hilaris. This indicates that D. helophoroides and D. major can be employed as biological control agents to manage P. hilaris populations. This study provides a theoretical framework and empirical evidence for the development of early warning and green control strategies for P. hilaris.