Dominant spring precipitation anomaly modes and circulation characteristics in the Tarim Basin, Central Asia

Recently, extreme precipitation has occurred frequently in the Tarim Basin, which has a fragile ecological environment, arousing widespread concern. Using daily precipitation observations from 42 stations in the Tarim Basin during the spring of 1980–2021 and monthly circulation reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5, as well as statistical analyses and physical diagnostic methods, this study investigated the abnormal modes and the evolution characteristics and differences in atmospheric circulation. The results show that the spring precipitation anomalies in the Tarim Basin can be divided into two independent precipitation modes: the first (EOF1) is a precipitation pattern that is uniform throughout the region and the second (EOF2) is an east–west inverse pattern. Thus, there are distinct differences in the atmospheric circulation characteristics responsible for abnormal spring precipitation modes in the basin. When the precipitation across the entire basin is consistently excessive, the 500 hPa geopotential height is affected by the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation related circulation, and anomalous negative geopotential height at 500 hPa and anomalous cyclone at 700 hPa control the entire Tarim Basin, favoring anomalous upward motion, and western and southwestern water vapor transport. This leaves the Tarim Basin with a net water vapor budget and abnormally high atmospheric precipitable water. The opposite situation occurs when the precipitation across the entire basin is consistently lower than normal. When there is a west-to-east precipitation gradient,  the western part of the Tarim Basin is affected by the anomalous cyclone while the eastern part is affected by the amomalous anticyclone, leading to the east-west discrepancy. The western region of the Tarim Basin is dominated by upward airflow, whereas the eastern region is dominated by downward airflow, providing dynamic conditions for the west-to-east precipitation gradient. Under the influence of anomalous water vapor transport from the southwest and water vapor convergence, water vapor conditions favorable for precipitation can occur. The net water vapor in the basin also exhibited an abnormal west-to-east transport pattern. Moreover, the atmospheric precipitable water demonstrated an inverse phase distribution under the EOF2 atmospheric precipitation mode in the Tarim Basin.