Effects of urbanization and deforestation on flooding: Case study of Cap-Haïtien City, Haiti

Cap-Haïtien, the second largest city in Haiti, is highly vulnerable to earthquakes, landslides, and flooding. The rapid pace of urbanization and deforestation has exacerbated the risk of flooding, resulting in disasters in November 2012, 2016, and 2022. This study aims to assess the impact of urbanization and deforestation on river flooding in Cap-Haïtien by applying the hydrological model Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the hydrodynamic model Sobek-Rural. We examined the current situation and a scenario of future urbanization and deforestation. Urbanization and deforestation are found to play a pivotal role in the production and deposition of sediment along the lower Haut-du-Cap River reaches. The existing hydraulic capacity of the river and its drainage system cannot handle the estimated peak flows. The mountain ravines west of the city are found to be the primary source of sediment-laden flash floods. We recommend retention basins, drainage extensions, and pragmatic public policies to mitigate flood risk. Comprehensive strategies are needed to address the detrimental effects of urbanization and deforestation on flooding in Cap-Haïtien and similar regions where a lack of water governance has worsened the flooding alongside urbanization and deforestation. We generalize our experiences from Cap-Haïtien into a broader framework for data-scarce areas.