Cicada minimum age tree: Cryptic speciation and exponentially increasing base substitution rates in recent geologic time.

We developed a new time-calibrated tree incorporating primarily endemic along with some cryptic Ryukyu islands cicada data, following the recent publication of global cicada data by Marshall et al. (2018), Łukasik et al. (2018), Simon et al. (2019), Price et al. (2019), and Hill et al. (2021).  A total of 352 specimens were analyzed using BEAST v1. X software with a relaxed clock model. Fossil calibrations as old as Triassic were adopted largely following Johnson et al. (2018) and Moulds (2018), and a Quaternary geological event calibration was adopted following Osozawa et al. (2012, 2021b) and input into BEAST v1. X. Our timetree suggests that Tettigarctidae had a cicada basal lineage as old as 200.63 Ma, with Derotettiginae the next oldest lineage at 99.2 Ma. Tibicininae is a sister of the remaining subfamilies of Tettigomyiinae, Cicadettinae, and Cicadidae, and their species level differentiation and radiation began at 40.57 Ma. The Cicadinae clade consists of specific tribes with paraphyletic relationship, and the vicariance and adaptive radiation generated many cryptic species in each tribe. We estimated base substitution rate as a function of age, and the result strongly indicates an exponential increase of base substitution rate in recent geologic time. The consequent increase in cicada biodiversity, including generation of cryptic species in the Ryukyu Islands and surroundings, may have been driven by the generation and spreading of C4 grasses and coeval Quaternary climate change.