Model Based on Ultrasound Radiomics and Machine Learning to Preoperative Differentiation of Follicular Thyroid Neoplasm.

Objectives: To evaluate the value of radiomics based on ultrasonography in differentiating follicular thyroid carcinoma (FTC) and follicular thyroid adenoma (FTA) and construct a tool for preoperative noninvasive predicting FTC and FTA.

Methods: The clinical data and ultrasound images of 389 patients diagnosed with FTC or FTA postoperatively were retrospectively analyzed at 3 institutions from January 2017 to December 2023. Patients in our hospital were randomly assigned in a 7:3 ratio to training cohort and validation cohort. External test cohort consisted of data collected from other 2 hospitals. Radiomics features were used to develop models based on different machine learning classifiers. A combined model was developed combining radiomics features with clinical characteristics and a nomogram was depicted. The performance of the models was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve and decision curve.

Results: Radiomics model based on random forest showed best performance in discriminating FTC and FTA, with AUCs 0.880 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.8290-0.9308), 0.871 (95% CI: 0.7690-0.9734), and 0.821 (95% CI: 0.7036-0.9389) in training, validation, and test cohort, respectively. The combined model presented better efficacy comparing with clinical model and radiomics model, with AUCs 0.883 (95% CI: 0.8359-0.9295), 0.874 (95% CI: 0.7873-0.9615), and 0.876 (0.7809-0.9714) in training, validation, and test cohort, respectively. The calibration curves suggested good consistency and decision curves showed the highest overall clinical benefit for the combined model.

Conclusions: Ultrasound radiomics model based on random forest is feasible to differentiate FTC and FTA, and the combined model is an intuitively noninvasive tool for FTC and FTA preoperative identification.