Integrated assessment of land use and carbon storage changes in the Tulufan-Hami Basin under the background of urbanization and climate change

Precise forecasting of land use modifications and carbon storage (CS) alterations is essential for effective regulatory measures and ecological quality enhancement. However, there are limited studies on land use dynamics and its impact on CS in the arid regions of Northwest China. Therefore, this study explores land use and CS changes in the Tulufan-Hami Basin from 2000 to 2050. The SD-FLUS and InVEST models were employed to simulate land use patterns and assess CS under three scenarios (SSP126-EP, SSP245-ND and SSP585-ED). The results of our study indicate that the area of cropland and built-up land both increased dramatically from 2000 to 2020, expanding by 347 km² and 505 km² respectively. CS initially rose by 0.74 × 10⁶t from 2000 to 2010 but then declined by 1.37 × 10⁶t from 2010 to 2020. Construction expansion and grassland degradation drove the decline. By 2050, the SSP126-EP scenario predicts an increase in CS of 3.64 × 10⁶t compared to 2020. However, both the SSP245-ND and SSP585-ED scenarios show significant decreases, with a decline of 0.55 × 10⁶t and 1.87 × 10⁶t respectively. These findings provide a foundation for global ecological preservation and CS enhancement in arid regions.