Recovering NDVI over lake surfaces: Initial insights from CYGNSS data enhanced by ERA-5 inputs

The escalating water pollution in many lakes has led to more frequent occurrences of algal bloom disasters in recent decades. The severity of these disasters can be assessed through remote sensing techniques, specifically using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for measurement. However, NDVI observations using optical sensors are often affected by cloud and fog in areas with numerous water bodies, such as Taihu Lake. Sensors operating in the microwave band can effectively mitigate this issue, particularly the emerging Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R), which offers high temporal resolution and cost-effectiveness. In this paper, we propose a new method to recover lake-surface NDVI on cloudy days, utilizing GNSS-R observables and auxiliary meteorological data in conjunction with a machine learning regression algorithm called Bagging Tree. We also examine the effective range of GNSS-R data within this application scenario. Meanwhile, the Weighted Linear Regression-Laplacian Prior Regulation Method (WLR-LPRM) image gap-filling algorithm is used as a benchmark to evaluate recovery accuracy. The regression coefficient of NDVI retrieved using the proposed method is 0.95, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.021 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.010. Compared to the previous work on GNSS-R algal bloom detection with overall accuracy of 0.82, this work shows significant improvement in both accuracy and utility. The recovery of lake surface NDVI provides detailed insights into algal blooms, including quantifiable metrics such as the amount and spatial distribution, which are crucial for effective monitoring and management. Additionally, the recovered image textures exhibit high clarity and closely resemble the reference NDVI images. Experimental evaluation using simulated and actual cloud blocks indicates the model’s robustness to recover NDVI under varying cloud cover conditions. In summary, this study demonstrates the capability of GNSS-R aided by supplementary data for recovering missing NDVI values on lake surfaces when optical observations are absent for the first time.