A data-driven ISM-BN model for safety analysis of inland shipping in the Pearl River Basin

Inland shipping of the Pearl River plays an important role in the Chinese shipping system. To ensure navigation safety, we collect reports of maritime accidents from 2015 to 2022 in the Pearl River basin. This article extracts influencing factors by collecting the experience of inland waterway safety navigation and analyzing accident reports. Then, this paper uses the interpretative structural modeling method (ISM) to build a correlation model. Using a data-driven Bayesian network (BN), it analyzes the impact of various factors on the safety navigation in the Pearl River. The model validation is completed by compared with tree augmented naive Bayes classifiers (TAN) network using the same validation samples, through validation with the test set, the prediction accuracy has improved by 25%. The results indicate factors such as vessel type, accident month, accident day and time, etc. have a significant impact on the safety of navigation in the inland Pearl River waterway. The method used can identify important risk factors for accidents and the average predictive probability of validation samples reaches 87.03%. These research results could be extended to maritime management efforts in the Pearl River Basin.