Modeling urban expansion and its impacts on carbon storage through integrative scenario analysis for sustainable development in the Changchun-Jilin-Tumen region

The Changchun-Jilin-Tumen (CJT) region in Northeast China is a key economic hub and a strategic gateway for China's integration into Northeast Asia, playing a crucial role in the Belt and Road Initiative. However, rapid urbanization in this region has precipitated substantial environmental challenges, particularly the degradation of carbon storage services (CSS) due to the expansion of impervious surface areas (ISA). This study employs multi-source remote sensing data, advanced geospatial analysis, and scenario-based decision-making technologies to evaluate the impacts of ISA expansion on CSS from 2000 to 2035 using the PLUS and InVEST models. The results reveal significant losses in CSS, with a net decrease of 8.10 × 10⁶ tons of carbon projected by 2022. Under the Natural Development scenario, these losses could escalate to 15.32 × 10⁶ tons by 2035. Conversely, the Ecological Protection and High-Quality Development scenarios suggest that strategic interventions could mitigate these losses, potentially leading to CSS gains of up to 3.42 × 10⁶ tons in the Ecological Protection scenario. This study highlights the pressing need to integrate ecological considerations into urban planning to balance development with environmental sustainability. The findings provide essential guidance for policymakers aiming to align urban growth with carbon neutrality targets, particularly in the context of global climate commitments and the increasing imperative for sustainable urban development.