Consumption-Based Emissions of African Countries: An Analysis of Decoupling Dynamics and Drivers

Formulating equitable climate policies should not overlook the challenges faced by less developed regions. African countries are at a crucial stage of economic development and deeper integration into global trade. Therefore, understanding their carbon footprints (i.e., consumption-based CO₂ emissions) is essential for crafting a sustainable development pathway for Africa and developing comprehensive and fair climate policies. Here, we investigate consumption-based CO₂ emissions in 55 African economics using a new Multi-Regional Input-Output model called “EMERGING” for 2015–2019; we also analyze the impacts of global trade participation on emissions, the decoupling status of emissions and economic, and hidden influencing factors. Results show that 65% of African countries experienced rapid growth in consumption-based emissions, with an average annual growth rate of 6.4%. Significantly, 87% of African countries are net emissions importers, predominantly attributed to their trade relations with other developing countries (i.e., South-South trade), a condition characterizing 68% of all trade interactions; The embodied carbon in imports is primarily concentrated in the transportation, petroleum refining, metal products, and machinery sectors. The decoupling analysis indicates that 15 countries strongly decoupled from production-based carbon emissions, and 14 from consumption-based; however, only 9 have concurrently achieved decoupling in both domains of emissions. Optimizing the carbon emission efficiency of final demand, particularly within the tertiary sector, is a key for successful decoupling and emissions reduction. The findings provide essential insights from consumption-based emissions that could guide more effective, targeted climate policies contributing to the mitigation of climate impacts and fostering sustainable development in African nations.