缓解沿海特大城市洪涝灾害的有效适应方案--向越南胡志明市学习

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI:10.1029/2024EF004766
Leon Scheiber, Nivedita Sairam, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Christian Jordan, Jan Visscher, Tara Evaz Zadeh, Laurens J. N. Oostwegel, Danijel Schorlemmer, Ngo Thanh Son, Hong Nguyen Quan, Torsten Schlurmann, Matthias Garschagen, Heidi Kreibich
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引用次数: 0

摘要

尽管在洪水防御方面进行了投资,但许多沿海大城市的经济和生计仍面临洪水的严重威胁。例如,在胡志明市,大规模环堤的建设减轻了风暴潮的负面影响,但高强度的降雨仍经常造成洪水灾害,这也是目前该市洪水损失比例最高的原因。由于可持续的洪水风险管理需要详细的空间信息,因此我们根据之前在胡志明市校准和验证过的一系列新型模型,分析了当地的风险及其组成部分。此外,我们还评估了两种分散式适应方案(即私人预防措施和雨水滞留)在缓解冲积洪水方面的有效性。我们的综合风险评估显示,这两种方法具有互补性,这是实施这两种方法的一大优势。这两种方法的实施有可能将每年的预期损失和每年受影响的家庭数量分别减少 16% 和 56%。这也反映在每户年度损失的显著减少上,我们建议将其作为洪水风险的另一个以人为本的指标。此外,除了自上而下的保护计划之外,这些措施也非常适合加强公民对降低风险的参与。因此,在胡志明市等沿海大城市,用分散的适应方案对环堤进行补充,可被视为一种有效的通用战略,可减轻洪水灾害的影响,决策者应予以鼓励。除水文和气象条件外,本研究的方法和结论也适用于面临类似挑战的任何沿海大城市。
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Effective Adaptation Options to Alleviate Nuisance Flooding in Coastal Megacities—Learning From Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

The economies and livelihoods of many coastal megacities are at serious risk from flooding, despite investments in flood defenses. For instance, in Ho Chi Minh City, the construction of a large-scale ring-dike has mitigated negative effects from storm surges, yet damage is still frequently caused by high-intensity rainfalls leading to nuisance flooding, which is responsible for the highest proportion of flood losses in the city today. Because sustainable flood risk management requires detailed spatial information, we analyze the local risk and its components based on a chain of novel models previously calibrated and validated for Ho Chi Minh City. Furthermore, we assess the effectiveness of two decentralized adaptation options, namely private precautionary measures and rainwater retention, for mitigating pluvial flooding. Our integrated risk assessment reveals that the approaches are complementary, which is a major advantage for their implementation. Implementation of both approaches has the potential to reduce the expected annual damage and the number of annually affected households by 16% and 56%, respectively. This is also reflected in a significant reduction of annual losses per household, which we propose as an additional, people-centered indicator of flood risk. Moreover, these measures are well-suited to strengthen citizen participation in risk reduction beyond top-down protection schemes. Complementing the ring-dike with decentralized adaptation options can therefore be seen as an effective and generic strategy to alleviate the impacts of nuisance flooding in coastal megacities, such as Ho Chi Minh City, and should be incentivized by decision-makers. Aside from hydrological and metocean site conditions, both the methodology and findings of this study are transferrable to any coastal megacity facing similar challenges.

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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
期刊最新文献
Effective Adaptation Options to Alleviate Nuisance Flooding in Coastal Megacities—Learning From Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Observations Over a Century Underscore an Increasing Likelihood of Compound Dry-Hot Events in China Response of Global Runoff Components to Rising CO2 Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation Consumption-Based Emissions of African Countries: An Analysis of Decoupling Dynamics and Drivers
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