Livelihood vulnerability assessment among the agrarian indigenous communities of Sundarban Biosphere Reserve in India for building resilience and adaptation.

Indian Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (ISBR) is a vulnerable Southeast Asian region. The negative effects of climate change were putting tremendous pressure on this region. However, a dearth of literature focused on the vulnerability and adaptation to climate change among the tribal agrarian community in ISBR. Against this backdrop, this study aims to ascertain different tribal community's perceptions of vulnerability and adaptation preferences through a mixed-method approach and measure the determinants of agricultural livelihood vulnerability. Using a multi-stage random sampling technique and with the help of a pre-structured survey schedule in ISBR, this study involved 300 randomly selected respondents in the interview and focus group discussion. This study applied the IPCC framework to evaluate the integrated livelihood vulnerability to climate change in the ISBR. This study measured the determinant factors underlying vulnerability using ordered probit regression and focus group discussions. This study measures vulnerability as a function of adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure. For the integrated livelihood vulnerability index, 44 indicators under 9 main categories were chosen. 36.52% of rural livelihoods in the southern and southeastern part of Indian SBR were highly vulnerable due to high exposure to flood, riverbank erosion, frequent cyclone, high sensitivity to inadequate access to basic amenities, and low adaptive capacities due to poor livelihood security and poor socio-economic condition. On the other hand, the northern portion of the region exhibits low to moderate vulnerability because of low exposure, low sensitivity, and strong adaptive capacity. Results suggest that the limited adaptation capacities of the tribal household, such as inadequate infrastructure and low-income opportunities, are the primary reasons for livelihood vulnerabilities. This approach can be applied at different scales in other regions of India and other developing countries.