Predictors of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Events in Patients with Metabolic Dysfunction-associated Steatotic Liver Disease.

Objective Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is a chronic liver disease associated with metabolic comorbidities. However, the risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in these patients remain unclear. Therefore, this study investigated predictors of ASCVD in patients with MASLD. Methods This single-center retrospective study examined 372 patients with MASLD ≥40 years old with liver biopsies and available Hisayama scores (median follow-up, 7.4 years; range, 0.6-22 years). We compared baseline characteristics, liver histology (stage, lobular inflammation, steatosis, and hepatocellular ballooning), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index (<1.3/1.3-2.66/≥2.67), and laboratory data between patients with and without ASCVD. A predictive model for the onset of ASCVD based on the Hisayama score (low/intermediate/high) and ASCVD incidence was evaluated according to the liver fibrosis stage and FIB-4 index. Results ASCVD incidence was 11.1/1,000 person-years, with cumulative incidences of 4.4%, 9.0%, 14%, and 32% at 5, 10, 15, and 20 years, respectively. Regarding the incidence of ASCVD, the liver fibrosis stage and an FIB-4 index ≥2.67 were not significant predictors, but type IV collagen 7S was a significant predictor. The incidence of ASCVD was higher in the intermediate- and high-risk Hisayama score groups than in the low-risk group. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, the Hisayama score and type IV collagen 7S predicted the incidence of ASCVD more accurately than an FIB-4 index ≥2.67. Conclusions The Hisayama score predicted ASCVD risk in patients with MASLD. These findings will help predict and improve the prognosis of MASLD.