Rejection of Federal Guidance by Southern US States and Projected Consequences for Ending the HIV Epidemic.

Evidence-based HIV programming focused on populations at risk of HIV is critical for sustainable disease prevention. In response to the Tennessee Department of Health decision to reject federal HIV guidance, the present study examines the potential impact of Southern US states adopting policies that direct HIV prevention and testing efforts away from populations "disproportionately affected" (DA) by HIV toward populations "non-disproportionately affected" (NDA). Descriptive and projection analyses with publicly available data explored the influence of policies emphasizing NDA populations on HIV cases. Across the Southern US, DA populations (cisgender women, men who have sex with men, transgender persons, and people who inject drugs) represent the absolute majority (90%) of diagnosed HIV cases, whereas NDA populations (pregnant women, infants, first responders, and human trafficking victims) represent only a small proportion (2%) of diagnosed HIV cases. Estimated projections show avoidable HIV cases among DA populations in the Southern US alone could aggregate to over 32,000 by 2030 if prevention efforts exclusively concentrate on NDA populations, which approximates the current national annual incidence of 36,000 HIV cases. Prevention efforts aimed at DA populations compared with NDA populations could reduce new infections across the Southern US by 47% versus 1%, respectively, by 2030. Policies disregarding epidemiological data may hinder efforts to end the HIV epidemic, both regionally and nationally.