病媒控制登革热流行病模型稳定性分析和数值模拟讨论

IF 1.5 4区 物理与天体物理 Q2 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Brazilian Journal of Physics Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI:10.1007/s13538-024-01656-y
Ali Raza, Kashif Ali, Syed T. R. Rizvi, Sanaullah Sattar, Aly R. Seadawy
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引用次数: 0

摘要

尽管医学和疫苗接种取得了进步,但登革热病造成的全球死亡人数仍在继续上升,尤其是在发展中国家,因为这些国家的现代医疗保健服务和预防措施十分有限。在二十一世纪,登革热病已成为全球卫生部门面临的严峻挑战,因为它严重影响了 100 多个国家,每年造成数千人死亡。本研究通过在蚊子种群中引入控制参数,设计了登革热病毒的 SEIR-SEI 数学模型。通过引入该参数,我们可以确定控制措施对登革热病毒传播动态的影响。首先,我们确保所有状态变量都是有界的,并在整个研究过程中保持非负状态。然后,我们计算出模型的两个平衡点,即无登革热平衡点(DFE)和登革热流行平衡点(DEE),以便进一步分析。我们还计算了繁殖数((\mathfrak {R}\),这是流行病学中一个重要的阈值参数。定性分析表明,如果 \(\mathfrak {R}<1\) 和 \(\mathfrak {R}>1\) 分别为 DFE 点和 DEE 点,则模型具有局部和全局稳定性。我们还进行了敏感性分析,以确定对登革热病毒传播动态影响最大的参数。这一洞察力有助于卫生政策制定者优化他们的斗争,以降低易感人类和受感染蚊子种群之间的感染率。我们采用两种数值方案,即非标准有限差分方案(NSFD)和 Runga-kutta 方案(RK4),来验证所提出的 SEIR-SEI 登革热流行病模型的理论和数值结果。同时还提供了数值模拟来支持这些结果。
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Discussion on Vector Control Dengue Epidemic Model for Stability Analysis and Numerical Simulations

Despite advancements in medicine and vaccination, the global death toll from dengue disease continues to rise, especially in developing countries, where modern healthcare access and prevention are limited. In the twenty-first century, dengue disease has emerged as a severe global challenge for the health sector because it severely affects more than 100 countries and causes thousands of deaths annually. This study designs an SEIR-SEI mathematical model of the dengue virus by introducing a control parameter within the mosquito population. The inclusion of this parameter enables us to determine the impact of control measures on the transmission dynamics of the dengue virus. Firstly, we ensure that all state variables are bounded and remain non-negative throughout the study. Then, we calculate the two equilibrium points, the dengue-free equilibrium (DFE) and dengue-endemic equilibrium point (DEE), of the model for further analysis. We also calculate the reproductive number \(\mathfrak {R}\), which is a crucial threshold parameter in epidemiology. The qualitative analysis shows that the model possesses local and global stability at the DFE and DEE points if \(\mathfrak {R}<1\) and \(\mathfrak {R}>1\), respectively. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis to identify the parameter with the most significant impact on the transmission dynamics of the dengue virus. This insight assists health policy makers in optimizing their struggles to lower the infection rates between susceptible humans and infected mosquito populations. We apply the two numerical schemes, the non-standard finite difference scheme (NSFD) and the Runga-kutta (RK4) scheme, to validate the theoretical and numerical results of the proposed SEIR-SEI dengue epidemic model. Numerical simulations are also provided in support of these results.

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来源期刊
Brazilian Journal of Physics
Brazilian Journal of Physics 物理-物理:综合
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
6.20%
发文量
189
审稿时长
6.0 months
期刊介绍: The Brazilian Journal of Physics is a peer-reviewed international journal published by the Brazilian Physical Society (SBF). The journal publishes new and original research results from all areas of physics, obtained in Brazil and from anywhere else in the world. Contents include theoretical, practical and experimental papers as well as high-quality review papers. Submissions should follow the generally accepted structure for journal articles with basic elements: title, abstract, introduction, results, conclusions, and references.
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