One-Year Risk Prediction of Elevated Serum Uric Acid Levels in Older Adults: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

Objective: To develop and externally validate a nomogram to predict elevated serum uric acid (SUA) levels in older adults.

Study design: This is a longitudinal Chinese cohort study.

Methods: A cohort of 2788 older adults was established at Huadong Hospital, followed-up for at least one year, and screened for risk factors for elevated SUA levels. A logistic regression model was built to predict elevated SUA, and its performance was validated.

Results: The risk prediction model showed good discrimination ability in both the development cohort (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.82; 95% confidence interval (CI) =0.79~0.86) and the external validation cohort (AUC=0.76; 95% CI=0.70~0.82). The model was adequately calibrated, and the predictions correlated with the observed outcome (χ ² = 6.36, P = 0.607). Men were more prone to elevated SUA levels than women were, and a baseline SUA level ≥360 μmol/L was a common risk factor for both males and females. Proteinuria status was an additional risk factor for males, whereas a baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)<60 mL/min·1.73 m² and diabetes status were additional risk factors for females.

Conclusion: The externally validated nomogram, which is predictive of elevated SUA in older adults, might aid in the detection of individual diseases, the development of preventive interventions and clinical decision-making.