[基于人为源排放与空气质量响应关系的源排放清单动态更新方法]。

Q2 Environmental Science 环境科学 Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI:10.13227/j.hjkx.202311123
Jing She, Li Jiang, Gui-Rong Yao, Qiang Chen, Guang-Yao Li, Yu-Huan Zhu, Jia Liu, Wei Sun
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引用次数: 0

摘要

污染源排放清单是分析污染成因、确定污染源贡献、科学制定大气污染防治策略的基础。目前的清单构建方法主要侧重于提高清单的准确性和时空分辨率,迫切需要研究动态更新方法来解决源排放清单的滞后问题。为了建立一种有效而通用的源排放清单动态更新方法,采用基于随机森林的气象归一化方法来捕捉污染物与人为排放之间的响应关系。基于响应关系和基本排放清单,提出了基于排放与空气质量关系的排放清单更新方法(REQEI)。以MEIC为例,利用该方法构建了REQEI_MEIC库存。通过横向比较法和模型验证法对REQEI_MEIC库存的适用性和合理性进行检验,从而证明库存构建方法的可行性。结果表明:REQEI_MEIC与MEIC的污染物排放差异较小,两者的模型验证效果基本一致;在某些地区,REQEI_MEIC的排放量更接近实际排放量,污染物模拟效果更有利。清单动态更新方法可以在大大减少工作量的基础上构建相对准确的污染物排放清单。该方法通过人为源排放与空气质量响应的关系快速外推清单,加快了清单更新的速度,适合实现现有清单的快速动态更新,并能在一定程度上降低排放清单时空限制对污染原因分析的限制。
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[Method for Dynamic Updating of Source Emission Inventories Based on the Response Relationship Between Anthropogenic Source Emissions and Air Quality].

Pollution source emission inventories are the basis for analyzing the causes of pollution, identifying the contribution of pollution sources, and scientifically formulating air pollution prevention strategies. The current inventory construction methods mainly focus on improving the accuracy and spatial and temporal resolution of the inventory, and there is an urgent need to look into dynamic updating methods to address the problem of lagging source emission inventories. In order to develop an effective and versatile method for the dynamic updating of source emission inventories, a meteorological normalization method based on random forests was chosen to capture the response relationship between pollutants and anthropogenic emissions. Based on the response relationship and the base emission inventory, the method for updating emission inventories based on the relationship between emissions and air quality (REQEI) was developed. Taking MEIC as the example, the REQEI_MEIC inventory was constructed using this method. The applicability and reasonableness of the REQEI_MEIC inventory was examined through the horizontal comparison method and the model validation method, so as to prove the feasibility of the inventory construction method. The results showed that the differences in pollutant emissions between the REQEI_MEIC and MEIC inventories were small, and the model validation effects of the two inventories were generally consistent. In some areas, the emissions of the REQEI_MEIC were closer to the actual emissions, and the pollutant modeling effect was more favorable. The inventory dynamic updating method can construct a relatively accurate pollutant emission inventory on the basis of greatly reducing the workload. The method quickly extrapolates the inventory through the relationship between anthropogenic source emissions and air quality response, accelerates the speed of inventory updating, is suitable for realizing the rapid dynamic updating of existing inventories, and can to a certain extent reduce the limitations imposed by the spatial and temporal limitations of emission inventories on the analysis of the causes of pollution.

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来源期刊
环境科学
环境科学 Environmental Science-Environmental Science (all)
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
15329
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