Relationship Between Perceived COVID-19 Risk and Change in Perceived Breast Cancer Risk: Prospective Observational Study.

Background: Whether COVID-19 is associated with a change in risk perception about other health conditions is unknown. Because COVID-19 occurred during a breast cancer study, we evaluated the effect of COVID-19 risk perception on women's breast cancer risk perception.

Objective: This study aims to evaluate the relationship between perceived risk of COVID-19 and change in perceived breast cancer risk. We hypothesized that women who perceived greater COVID-19 risk would evidence increased perceived breast cancer risk and this risk would relate to increased anxiety and missed cancer screening.

Methods: Women aged 40-74 years with no breast cancer history were enrolled in a US breast cancer prevention trial in outpatient settings. They had provided breast cancer risk perception and general anxiety before COVID-19. We performed a prospective observational study of the relationship between the perceived risk of COVID-19 and the change in perceived breast cancer risk compared to before the pandemic. Each woman was surveyed up to 4 times about COVID-19 and breast cancer risk perception, general anxiety, and missed medical care early in COVID-19 (May to December 2020).

Results: Among 13,002 women who completed a survey, compared to before COVID-19, anxiety was higher during COVID-19 (mean T score 53.5 vs 49.7 before COVID-19; difference 3.8, 95% CI 3.6-4.0; P<.001) and directly related to perceived COVID-19 risk. In survey wave 1, anxiety increased by 2.3 T score points for women with very low perceived COVID-19 risk and 5.2 points for those with moderately or very high perceived COVID-19 risk. Despite no overall difference in breast cancer risk perception (mean 32.5% vs 32.5% before COVID-19; difference 0.24, 95% CI -0.47 to 0.52; P=.93), there was a direct relationship between change in perceived breast cancer risk with COVID-19 risk perception, ranging in survey wave 4 from a 2.4% decrease in breast cancer risk perception for those with very low COVID-19 risk perception to a 3.4% increase for women with moderately to very high COVID-19 risk perception. This was not explained by the change in anxiety or missed cancer screening. After adjustment for age, race, education, and survey wave, compared to women with very low perceived COVID-19 risk, perceived breast cancer risk increased by 1.54% (95% CI 0.75%-2.33%; P<.001), 4.28% (95% CI 3.30%-5.25%; P<.001), and 3.67% (95% CI 1.94%-5.40%; P<.001) for women with moderately low, neither high nor low, and moderately or very high perceived COVID-19 risk, respectively.

Conclusions: Low perceived COVID-19 risk was associated with reduced perceived breast cancer risk, and higher levels of perceived COVID-19 risk were associated with increased perceived breast cancer risk. This natural experiment suggests that a threat such as COVID-19 may have implications beyond the pandemic. Preventive health behaviors related to perceived risk may need attention as COVID-19 becomes endemic.