Temporal Decomposition Analysis of Noncommunicable Disease Burden: The Interplay of Population Aging, Population Growth, and Low Physical Activity, 2010-2019.

Background: To analyze global trends in the noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) burden attributable to low physical activity, considering the impacts of population aging and growth.

Method: Based on the Global Burden Disease 2019 Study, the NCDs-related death and disability-adjusted life years attributable to low physical activity (defined as <3000 metabolic equivalent-min/wk) were obtained from 2010 to 2019. The average annual percent change was calculated using the joinpoint analysis. Decomposition analysis was applied to assess the separated contributions of 3 components (population aging, population growth, and death change due to all other factors) on the overall change in NCDs death attributed to low physical activity.

Results: From 2010 to 2019, the average annual percent change of age-standardized rates of NCDs due to low physical activity was -0.09% for death and -0.06% for disability-adjusted life years. However, the global absolute number of deaths from NCDs attributable to low physical activity increased from 672,215 to 831,502, and disability-adjusted life years rose from 12,813,793 to 15,747,938. This rise was largely driven by population aging and growth, contributing to a 13.0% and 14.7% increase, respectively. The most significant impact of population aging on NCD deaths was observed in high-middle socio-demographic index countries (17.6%), whereas population growth had the greatest effect in low socio-demographic index countries (24.3%).

Conclusions: The reduction in NCDs death rates attributed to low physical activity is insufficient to counteract the effects of population aging and growth. Targeted interventions for physical activity promotion should focus on the older population with special attention to diseases most sensitive to physical inactivity.