Changing trends in lung cancer disease burden between China and Australia from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions.

Purpose: Lung cancer (LC) is a leading cause of death and presents a substantial societal burden. This article compares its disease burden and risk factors between China and Australia to support health policymakers for LC prevention and treatment.

Materials and methods: The data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study were used to analyze disease temporal trends using Joinpoint regression model. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used for prediction. The population-attributable fraction (PAF) was used to analyze LC risk factors.

Results: In 2019, the age-standardized rates (ASR) of incidence and of mortality of LC in China were 41.71/100 000 and 38.70/100 000, while Australia's rates were 30.45/100 000 and 23.46/100 000. It showed an increasing trend in China but a decreasing trend in Australia. By 2030, the ASR of incidence and mortality are predicted to be 47.21/100 000 and 41.54/100 000 in China, while Australia's rates will reach 30.09/100 000 and 23.3/100 000, respectively. Smoking is the most common risk factor for LC, followed by particulate matter and occupational carcinogenesis. The PAF of smoking dropped in Australia (from 68.38% to 53.75% in females; 77.41% to 58.47% in males) but increased in China (from 19.56% to 26.58% in females; 80.45% to 82.03% in males) from 1990 to 2019.

Conclusions: The disease burden of LC in China is rising, whereas in Australia, it is declining. China still faces a heavy LC burden. Risk factor analysis supported for further improving the compliance and enforcement of polices on tobacco control and environmental management to reduce this disease burden.