Incidence and predictors of hyperglycemic emergencies among adult diabetic patients at public hospitals of Sidama Region and Gedeo Zone, Southern Ethiopia: a survival analysis.

Background: Hyperglycemic emergencies (HGEs) are the major deadliest acute complications of diabetes. HGEs have reached an alarming stage and increased year-to-year leading to increased morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality. Despite HGEs causing this increased healthcare, psychological, social, and economic burden, studies conducted to address this burden and its predictive factors remain limited. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the incidence and predictors of HGEs among adult diabetic patients.

Methods: An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was employed on 538 systematically selected adult diabetic patients who had diabetic follow-up in Sidama region and Gedeo zone public hospitals from September 1, 2018, to September 1, 2022. The sample size was determined using STATA V-14. Data were collected using an extraction checklist, entered into EPI data version 4.4.2.2, and analyzed using STATA version 14. The Kaplan-Meier curve and log-rank test were used to determine the survival probabilities and to compare the survival status. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to determine the association and identify the predictor variables. A statistical significance was declared at a p-value of <0.05 in line with a 95% confidence interval (CI) and hazard ratios.

Results: The study was conducted on 538 diabetic adult patients with a response rate of 100%. The mean age of study participants was 44.5 years, and more than 66.7% were males. The incidence rate of HGEs was found to be 29 (95% CI: 25.3-33.2) per 1000 person-months with a total of 7176.5 person-month observations. Being farmer (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 6.47; 95% CI: 2.61-16.04), poor glycemic control (AHR = 6.84; 95% CI: 3.47-13.49), less frequent diabetic follow-up (AHR = 4.00; 95% CI: 1.02-15.57), and having hypertension (HTN) (AHR = 2.94; 95% CI: 1.62-5.34) were significantly associated with increased hazard of acquiring HGEs among adult diabetic patients. Conversely, the hazard of experiencing HGE was 63% lower among patients who had diabetic nephropathy relative to those without diabetic nephropathy (AHR = 0.35; 95% CI: 0.15-0.83). Hence, setting and strengthening specific diabetic management strategies focused on the identified predictors could be paramount to reducing HGEs and their unwanted effects. Moreover, it's better to consider more frequent diabetic follow-up visits for all patients regardless of other complications.