Workforce Analysis of Laryngologists in the United States Between 1993 and 2022.

Introduction: This study queries the US laryngology workforce geographic distribution and density and models laryngology workforce trends through 2050.

Methods: A national database of fellowship-trained laryngologists (FTLs) and nonfellowship-trained laryngologists (nFTLs) practicing primarily laryngology was formed by identifying laryngologists via internet search, with validation by regional laryngologists and senior laryngologists on this manuscript. Demographic variables included residency and/or fellowship graduation year, institutional affiliation, and practice zip code. US Census Bureau population data and projections were grouped by hospital referral region (HRR), as defined by the Dartmouth Healthcare Atlas. The National Resident Matching Program (NRMP) provided annual fellowship match data from 2012 to 2022.

Results: As of May 2023, there were 349 active laryngologists in the United States, including 303 FTLs. The median practice length for all laryngologists was 11 years. HRRs with the largest number of laryngologists were Manhattan, Boston, and Los Angeles, with 23, 16, and 14 respectively. One hundred and ninety-four of 306 (63%) HRRs did not have an active, primary laryngologist. The national median density of people per laryngologist including HRRs with at least one laryngologist was 645,160. Assuming a 35-year practice horizon prior to workforce exit and holding the 2018-2022 NRMP average of 18 fellows constant, the number of forecasted laryngologists by 2040 would be 568-an increase of 66%.

Conclusions: To date, no comprehensive database of practicing US laryngologists nor laryngology workforce forecast exists. Based on current benchmarks, the laryngology workforce would increase by 66% by 2040, ideally addressing the current dearth of laryngologists in low-density areas.

Level of evidence: NA Laryngoscope, 2024.