传染病:缺少数据的家庭建模。

IF 3 3区 医学 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Epidemics Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI:10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100811
Oron Madmon, Yair Goldberg
{"title":"传染病:缺少数据的家庭建模。","authors":"Oron Madmon,&nbsp;Yair Goldberg","doi":"10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100811","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over three years since the first identified SARS-CoV-2 case was discovered, the role of adolescents and children in spreading the virus remains unclear. Specifically, estimating the relative susceptibility of a child with respect to an adult is still an open question. In our work, we generalize a well-known household model for modeling infectious diseases, to include missing tests. Due to missingness, the likelihood of the generalized model cannot be maximized directly. Thus, we propose an estimation methodology, using a novel EM algorithm, for estimating the MLE in the presence of missing data. We implement the proposed mechanism using R software. Using a simulation study, we illustrate the performance of the proposed estimation methodology compared with the estimation procedure in the complete case. Finally, using the proposed estimation methodology we analyzed a dataset containing SARS-CoV-2 testing results, collected from the city of Bnei Brak, Israel, during the beginning of the pandemic. Using this dataset, we show that adolescents are less susceptible than adults, and children are less susceptible than adolescents.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49206,"journal":{"name":"Epidemics","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100811"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Infectious diseases: Household modeling with missing data\",\"authors\":\"Oron Madmon,&nbsp;Yair Goldberg\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100811\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Over three years since the first identified SARS-CoV-2 case was discovered, the role of adolescents and children in spreading the virus remains unclear. Specifically, estimating the relative susceptibility of a child with respect to an adult is still an open question. In our work, we generalize a well-known household model for modeling infectious diseases, to include missing tests. Due to missingness, the likelihood of the generalized model cannot be maximized directly. Thus, we propose an estimation methodology, using a novel EM algorithm, for estimating the MLE in the presence of missing data. We implement the proposed mechanism using R software. Using a simulation study, we illustrate the performance of the proposed estimation methodology compared with the estimation procedure in the complete case. Finally, using the proposed estimation methodology we analyzed a dataset containing SARS-CoV-2 testing results, collected from the city of Bnei Brak, Israel, during the beginning of the pandemic. Using this dataset, we show that adolescents are less susceptible than adults, and children are less susceptible than adolescents.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49206,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Epidemics\",\"volume\":\"50 \",\"pages\":\"Article 100811\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-12-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Epidemics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436524000720\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"INFECTIOUS DISEASES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Epidemics","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436524000720","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

自第一例确诊的SARS-CoV-2病例被发现以来的三年多时间里,青少年和儿童在病毒传播中的作用仍不清楚。具体来说,估计儿童相对于成人的相对易感性仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。在我们的工作中,我们推广了一个众所周知的传染病建模家庭模型,包括缺失测试。由于缺失,广义模型的似然不能直接最大化。因此,我们提出了一种估计方法,使用一种新的EM算法来估计存在缺失数据的最大似然。我们使用R软件实现了所提出的机制。通过仿真研究,我们将所提出的估计方法与完整情况下的估计过程进行了比较。最后,使用提出的估计方法,我们分析了一个包含SARS-CoV-2检测结果的数据集,该数据集是在大流行开始时从以色列Bnei Brak市收集的。使用这个数据集,我们表明青少年比成年人更不容易受到影响,儿童比青少年更不容易受到影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Infectious diseases: Household modeling with missing data
Over three years since the first identified SARS-CoV-2 case was discovered, the role of adolescents and children in spreading the virus remains unclear. Specifically, estimating the relative susceptibility of a child with respect to an adult is still an open question. In our work, we generalize a well-known household model for modeling infectious diseases, to include missing tests. Due to missingness, the likelihood of the generalized model cannot be maximized directly. Thus, we propose an estimation methodology, using a novel EM algorithm, for estimating the MLE in the presence of missing data. We implement the proposed mechanism using R software. Using a simulation study, we illustrate the performance of the proposed estimation methodology compared with the estimation procedure in the complete case. Finally, using the proposed estimation methodology we analyzed a dataset containing SARS-CoV-2 testing results, collected from the city of Bnei Brak, Israel, during the beginning of the pandemic. Using this dataset, we show that adolescents are less susceptible than adults, and children are less susceptible than adolescents.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
相关文献
二甲双胍通过HDAC6和FoxO3a转录调控肌肉生长抑制素诱导肌肉萎缩
IF 8.9 1区 医学Journal of Cachexia, Sarcopenia and MusclePub Date : 2021-11-02 DOI: 10.1002/jcsm.12833
Min Ju Kang, Ji Wook Moon, Jung Ok Lee, Ji Hae Kim, Eun Jeong Jung, Su Jin Kim, Joo Yeon Oh, Sang Woo Wu, Pu Reum Lee, Sun Hwa Park, Hyeon Soo Kim
具有疾病敏感单倍型的非亲属供体脐带血移植后的1型糖尿病
IF 3.2 3区 医学Journal of Diabetes InvestigationPub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.1111/jdi.13939
Kensuke Matsumoto, Taisuke Matsuyama, Ritsu Sumiyoshi, Matsuo Takuji, Tadashi Yamamoto, Ryosuke Shirasaki, Haruko Tashiro
封面:蛋白质组学分析确定IRSp53和fastin是PRV输出和直接细胞-细胞传播的关键
IF 3.4 4区 生物学ProteomicsPub Date : 2019-12-02 DOI: 10.1002/pmic.201970201
Fei-Long Yu, Huan Miao, Jinjin Xia, Fan Jia, Huadong Wang, Fuqiang Xu, Lin Guo
来源期刊
Epidemics
Epidemics INFECTIOUS DISEASES-
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
7.90%
发文量
92
审稿时长
140 days
期刊介绍: Epidemics publishes papers on infectious disease dynamics in the broadest sense. Its scope covers both within-host dynamics of infectious agents and dynamics at the population level, particularly the interaction between the two. Areas of emphasis include: spread, transmission, persistence, implications and population dynamics of infectious diseases; population and public health as well as policy aspects of control and prevention; dynamics at the individual level; interaction with the environment, ecology and evolution of infectious diseases, as well as population genetics of infectious agents.
期刊最新文献
Collaborative forecasting of influenza-like illness in Italy: The Influcast experience A prospective real-time transfer learning approach to estimate influenza hospitalizations with limited data Modelling COVID-19 in the North American region with a metapopulation network and Kalman filter Estimating nosocomial transmission of micro-organisms in hospital settings using patient records and culture data Estimating the generation time for influenza transmission using household data in the United States
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1