Quantitative natural history modeling of HPDL-related disease based on cross-sectional data reveals genotype-phenotype correlations.

Purpose: Biallelic HPDL variants have been identified as the cause of a progressive childhood-onset movement disorder, with a broad clinical spectrum from severe neurodevelopmental disorder to juvenile-onset pure hereditary spastic paraplegia type 83. This study aims at delineating the geno- and phenotypic spectra of patients with HPDL-related disease, quantitatively modeling the natural history, and uncovering genotype-phenotype associations.

Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of 90 published and 1 novel case was performed, using a Human-Phenotype-Ontology-based approach. Unsupervised phenotypic clustering was used alongside in silico analyses to identify distinct patient subgroups.

Results: The study models the natural history of the HPDL-related disease in a global cohort, clarifying the molecular and phenotypic spectrum and identifying 3 distinct subgroups characterized by differences in onset, clinical trajectories, and survival. It establishes genotype-phenotype associations, showing that the presence of moderately pathogenic missense variants in 1 allele leads to a milder, spastic paraplegic phenotype with later disease onset, whereas biallelic, highly pathogenic missense or truncating variants are associated with a more severe phenotype and reduced life span.

Conclusion: Quantitative and unbiased natural history modeling in HPDL-related disease reveals significant genotype-phenotype associations, providing a foundation for variant interpretation, anticipatory guidance, and choice of outcome measures in future prospective and functional studies.