{"title":"2006 - 2021年中国乙型肝炎死亡率趋势分析","authors":"R H Wang, J J Hu, Z Li, X Han","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn501113-20240801-00356","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B mortality among Chinese residents from 2006 to 2021 and predict the mortality trends from 2022 to 2027, providing reference for hepatitis B prevention and control efforts. <b>Methods:</b> A retrospective study was conducted using hepatitis B mortality data from 2006 to 2021 published by the Chinese Center For Disease Control And Prevention. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated based on the 2000 Chinese population as the standard population. The crude mortality rate (CMR) and ASMR were analyzed for temporal, regional, gender, and age distribution characteristics. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze trends, and the grey model was applied to predict CMR and ASMR from 2022 to 2027. <b>Results:</b> From 2006 to 2021, a total of 77 722 hepatitis B deaths were recorded, with an average CMR of 2.69/10 thousands and an ASMR of 2.00/10 thousands. The ASMR showed an overall decreasing trend for both males (AAPC=-5.4%, 95%<i>CI</i>: -8.1 to -2.7, <i>P</i><0.001) and females (AAPC=-5.7%, 95%<i>CI</i>: -8.4 to -3.0, <i>P</i><0.001). Declining trends were also observed in urban areas (AAPC=-5.0%, 95%<i>CI</i>: -7.7 to -2.2, <i>P</i>=0.001) and rural areas (AAPC=-5.7%, 95%<i>CI</i>: -9.0 to -2.4, <i>P</i>=0.001). Regional analysis indicated that the western, central, and eastern regions had average ASMRs of 2.86/10 thousands, 2.05/10 thousands, and 1.42/10 thousands, respectively, all showing downward trends. The grey model predicted that from 2022 to 2027, the CMR would decrease annually from 2.36/10 thousands to 2.03/10 thousands, while the ASMR would decline from 1.37/10 thousands to 1.04/10 thousands. <b>Conclusions:</b> Hepatitis B mortality rates in China, reflected by CMR and ASMR, have shown a consistent downward trend, indicating progress in hepatitis B prevention and control. Future efforts should prioritize targeted screening and preventive measures for rural populations, western regions, and males to further reduce mortality.</p>","PeriodicalId":24006,"journal":{"name":"中华肝脏病杂志","volume":"33 ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"[Analysis of hepatitis B mortality trends in China from 2006 to 2021].\",\"authors\":\"R H Wang, J J Hu, Z Li, X Han\",\"doi\":\"10.3760/cma.j.cn501113-20240801-00356\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B mortality among Chinese residents from 2006 to 2021 and predict the mortality trends from 2022 to 2027, providing reference for hepatitis B prevention and control efforts. <b>Methods:</b> A retrospective study was conducted using hepatitis B mortality data from 2006 to 2021 published by the Chinese Center For Disease Control And Prevention. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated based on the 2000 Chinese population as the standard population. The crude mortality rate (CMR) and ASMR were analyzed for temporal, regional, gender, and age distribution characteristics. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze trends, and the grey model was applied to predict CMR and ASMR from 2022 to 2027. <b>Results:</b> From 2006 to 2021, a total of 77 722 hepatitis B deaths were recorded, with an average CMR of 2.69/10 thousands and an ASMR of 2.00/10 thousands. The ASMR showed an overall decreasing trend for both males (AAPC=-5.4%, 95%<i>CI</i>: -8.1 to -2.7, <i>P</i><0.001) and females (AAPC=-5.7%, 95%<i>CI</i>: -8.4 to -3.0, <i>P</i><0.001). Declining trends were also observed in urban areas (AAPC=-5.0%, 95%<i>CI</i>: -7.7 to -2.2, <i>P</i>=0.001) and rural areas (AAPC=-5.7%, 95%<i>CI</i>: -9.0 to -2.4, <i>P</i>=0.001). Regional analysis indicated that the western, central, and eastern regions had average ASMRs of 2.86/10 thousands, 2.05/10 thousands, and 1.42/10 thousands, respectively, all showing downward trends. The grey model predicted that from 2022 to 2027, the CMR would decrease annually from 2.36/10 thousands to 2.03/10 thousands, while the ASMR would decline from 1.37/10 thousands to 1.04/10 thousands. <b>Conclusions:</b> Hepatitis B mortality rates in China, reflected by CMR and ASMR, have shown a consistent downward trend, indicating progress in hepatitis B prevention and control. Future efforts should prioritize targeted screening and preventive measures for rural populations, western regions, and males to further reduce mortality.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":24006,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"中华肝脏病杂志\",\"volume\":\"33 \",\"pages\":\"1-8\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-01-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"中华肝脏病杂志\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn501113-20240801-00356\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"Medicine\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"中华肝脏病杂志","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn501113-20240801-00356","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Medicine","Score":null,"Total":0}
[Analysis of hepatitis B mortality trends in China from 2006 to 2021].
Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B mortality among Chinese residents from 2006 to 2021 and predict the mortality trends from 2022 to 2027, providing reference for hepatitis B prevention and control efforts. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted using hepatitis B mortality data from 2006 to 2021 published by the Chinese Center For Disease Control And Prevention. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated based on the 2000 Chinese population as the standard population. The crude mortality rate (CMR) and ASMR were analyzed for temporal, regional, gender, and age distribution characteristics. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze trends, and the grey model was applied to predict CMR and ASMR from 2022 to 2027. Results: From 2006 to 2021, a total of 77 722 hepatitis B deaths were recorded, with an average CMR of 2.69/10 thousands and an ASMR of 2.00/10 thousands. The ASMR showed an overall decreasing trend for both males (AAPC=-5.4%, 95%CI: -8.1 to -2.7, P<0.001) and females (AAPC=-5.7%, 95%CI: -8.4 to -3.0, P<0.001). Declining trends were also observed in urban areas (AAPC=-5.0%, 95%CI: -7.7 to -2.2, P=0.001) and rural areas (AAPC=-5.7%, 95%CI: -9.0 to -2.4, P=0.001). Regional analysis indicated that the western, central, and eastern regions had average ASMRs of 2.86/10 thousands, 2.05/10 thousands, and 1.42/10 thousands, respectively, all showing downward trends. The grey model predicted that from 2022 to 2027, the CMR would decrease annually from 2.36/10 thousands to 2.03/10 thousands, while the ASMR would decline from 1.37/10 thousands to 1.04/10 thousands. Conclusions: Hepatitis B mortality rates in China, reflected by CMR and ASMR, have shown a consistent downward trend, indicating progress in hepatitis B prevention and control. Future efforts should prioritize targeted screening and preventive measures for rural populations, western regions, and males to further reduce mortality.
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