Predictive Value of Kidney Failure Risk Equation and Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin for Chronic Kidney Disease Progression in Chinese Population - A Retrospective Study.

Objective: To analyze the independent associations of the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages 3-5 in China and evaluate their predictive values for ESRD.

Patients and methods: A total of 716 patients with CKD stages 3-5 at the time of the initial renal medicine referral were retrospectively enrolled, and the study outcome was the observed incidence of ESRD at 2 years after the initial referral. Baseline characteristics were collected, and relevant laboratory indexes, including neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), were detected. The binary logistic regression model was used to analyze the independent associations, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the predictive values.

Results: The 2-year incidence of ESRD was 20.5% (147/716). The 4-variable KFRE, 8-variable KFRE and NGAL were independently associated with ESRD after adjusting for potential confounding factors. The AUCs of the 4-variable KFRE, 8-variable KFRE and NGAL for predicting ESRD among patients with CKD stages 3-5 were 0.711 [standard error (SE): 0.026, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.662-0.761], 0.725 (SE: 0.025, 95% CI: 0.677-0.774) and 0.736 (SE: 0.024, 95% CI: 0.686-0.785), respectively. The AUC of the 4-variable KFRE plus NGAL was significantly higher than those of the 4-variable KFRE and NGAL alone (0.900 vs 0.711, Z = 6.297, P < 0.001; 0.900 vs 0.736, Z = 5.795, P < 0.001), and the AUC of the 8-variable KFRE plus NGAL was also significantly higher than those of the 8-variable KFRE and NGAL alone (0.911 vs 0.725, Z = 6.491, P < 0.001; 0.911 vs 0.736, Z = 6.298, P < 0.001).

Conclusion: The KFRE was able to independently predict progression of CKD stage 3-5 to ESRD in Chinese population. The addition of NGAL to the KFRE was able to elevate the predictive value when applied in predicting 2-year ESRD.