Exploring Pure 4G Diffusion in India and its Connect with Human Development and Urbanization

Although many countries have already forayed into 5G deployment, 4G still comprises the largest share of mobile subscribers, especially in emerging economies such as India. In this paper, we quantitatively assess the diffusion characteristics of ‘pure’ 4G mobile communication in India using popular nonlinear diffusion models, and scrutinize the association of two external factors, namely Human Development and Urbanization, with formal and informal communication channels of diffusion, in the context of 4G. Our findings highlight the crucial role external factors play in the speed and pattern of 4G diffusion across India. Notably, the 4G diffusion is predominantly driven by informal communication channels, such as word of mouth and interpersonal signalling. Typically, in regions with lower levels of Human Development and Urbanization, the informal communication channels have a greater influence on the diffusion. However, as the levels of Human Development and Urbanization go up, the formal communication channels start gathering momentum. Thus, our preliminary study sheds light on how Human Development and Urbanization interact with formal and informal communication channels to shape the diffusion of 4G in emerging economies. Our findings could furnish valuable perspectives for policymakers and stakeholders toward refining their strategies concerning infrastructure deployment, socio-economic development, and regulatory interventions.