Prospective validation of ORACLE, a clonal expression biomarker associated with survival of patients with lung adenocarcinoma

Human tumors are diverse in their natural history and response to treatment, which in part results from genetic and transcriptomic heterogeneity. In clinical practice, single-site needle biopsies are used to sample this diversity, but cancer biomarkers may be confounded by spatiogenomic heterogeneity within individual tumors. Here we investigate clonally expressed genes as a solution to the sampling bias problem by analyzing multiregion whole-exome and RNA sequencing data for 450 tumor regions from 184 patients with lung adenocarcinoma in the TRACERx study. We prospectively validate the survival association of a clonal expression biomarker, Outcome Risk Associated Clonal Lung Expression (ORACLE), in combination with clinicopathological risk factors, and in stage I disease. We expand our mechanistic understanding, discovering that clonal transcriptional signals are detectable before tissue invasion, act as a molecular fingerprint for lethal metastatic clones and predict chemotherapy sensitivity. Lastly, we find that ORACLE summarizes the prognostic information encoded by genetic evolutionary measures, including chromosomal instability, as a concise 23-transcript assay. Swanton and colleagues present a clonal expression signature, ORACLE, which, in combination with clinicopathological and molecular risk factors, can predict survival of patients with lung adenocarcinoma, and they prospectively validate its prognostic value.