Disease burden and trend of melanoma among middle-aged and elderly population in China from 1990 to 2020, and prediction for 2022 to 2035.

Objectives: To analyze the disease burden and trend from 1990 to 2020 of melanoma among middle-aged and elderly populations in China, and to predict the future trend from 2022 to 2035.

Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 were utilized to collect incidence and mortality rates of melanoma, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and corresponding age crude rates among the middle-aged and elderly population in China. Additionally, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was employed to assess the temporal trends. Age-period-cohort (APC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were utilized to compute age, period, and cohort effects on incidence and mortality rates of melanoma, as well as to predict future trends up to 2035.

Results: During 1990-2021, the incidence rate of melanoma for males was higher than that for females among the middle-aged and elderly population in China, and the overall incidence rate increased annually with an EAPC of 2.13 (1.90, 2.36), while the overall mortality rate and DALY rate showed a declining trend with an EAPC of －0.28 (－0.41, －0.15) and －0.54 (－0.68, －0.41),respectively. The results of the APC model analysis revealed that age effects on both incidence and mortality rates of melanoma in China's middle-aged and elderly population were significant, with both increasing with age. Period and cohort effects showed an upward trend for incidence rates but a downward trend for mortality rates. Moreover, the period and cohort effects for mortality rates were not significant among females. In the BAPC prediction model, the number of incidences of melanoma in middle-aged and elderly people in China would increase dramatically. By 2035, the number of incidence cases is expected to reach approximately 9600 (males) and 10 300 (females), corresponding to an incidence rate of 2.66/10⁵ and 2.67/10⁵, respectively; the number of deaths is projected to be about 2600 (males) and 3500 (females) by 2035, corresponding to a mortality rate of 0.72/10⁵ and 0.91/10⁵, respectively.

Conclusions: The disease burden of melanoma among the middle-aged and elderly population in China remains substantial and is expected to increase over the next decade.