Yang Meng, Zongbiao Tan, Junhai Zhen, Di Xiao, Liwei Cai, Weiguo Dong, Changzheng Chen
{"title":"1990 - 2021年全球、地区和国家早发性结直肠癌负担：基于2021年全球疾病负担研究的系统分析","authors":"Yang Meng, Zongbiao Tan, Junhai Zhen, Di Xiao, Liwei Cai, Weiguo Dong, Changzheng Chen","doi":"10.1186/s12916-025-03867-9","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>To provide estimates and trends for burdens of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) from 1990 to 2021 at the global, regional, and national levels, and to provide projections of EOCRC burden through 2030.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A trend analysis based on the Global Burden of Diseases 2021. The joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends on EOCRC burden by calculating the corresponding average annual percent changes (AAPCs). A decomposition analysis was used to understand the drivers of the changes in EOCRC burden. The relationship between socio-demographic index (SDI) and disease burden was assessed by the concentration index of inequality. In addition, we constructed a Bayesian age-period-cohort model to predict the burden of EOCRC worldwide from 2022 to 2030.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Globally, the burden of EOCRC increased significantly between 1990 and 2021, with the incidence rising from 5.43/100000 to 6.13/100000 (AAPC = 0.39), and the prevalence increasing from 29.65/100000 to 38.86/100000 (AAPC = 0.87). Over the same period, the death rate decreased from 2.98/100000 to 2.30/100000 (AAPC = - 0.84), whereas the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) decreased from 148.46/100000 to 115.42/100000 (AAPC = - 0.82). In 2021, East Asia and China had the highest burden of EOCRC regionally and nationally. Decomposition analysis indicated the increase in EOCRC burden was mainly driven by population growth. The concentration index revealed that high-SDI countries had a greater burden of EOCRC than low-SDI countries. The global incidence and prevalence of EOCRC will rise continuously from 2022 to 2030.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Between 1990 and 2021, the incidence and prevalence of EOCRC have escalated, whereas the death rate and DALY rate have declined. The burden varied with sex, SDI, and geographical locations. Given the rising trend of EOCRC burden, coordinated efforts are needed to reduce the burden posed by this malignancy.</p>","PeriodicalId":9188,"journal":{"name":"BMC Medicine","volume":"23 1","pages":"34"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11753144/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Global, regional, and national burden of early-onset colorectal cancer from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021.\",\"authors\":\"Yang Meng, Zongbiao Tan, Junhai Zhen, Di Xiao, Liwei Cai, Weiguo Dong, Changzheng Chen\",\"doi\":\"10.1186/s12916-025-03867-9\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>To provide estimates and trends for burdens of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) from 1990 to 2021 at the global, regional, and national levels, and to provide projections of EOCRC burden through 2030.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A trend analysis based on the Global Burden of Diseases 2021. The joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends on EOCRC burden by calculating the corresponding average annual percent changes (AAPCs). A decomposition analysis was used to understand the drivers of the changes in EOCRC burden. The relationship between socio-demographic index (SDI) and disease burden was assessed by the concentration index of inequality. In addition, we constructed a Bayesian age-period-cohort model to predict the burden of EOCRC worldwide from 2022 to 2030.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Globally, the burden of EOCRC increased significantly between 1990 and 2021, with the incidence rising from 5.43/100000 to 6.13/100000 (AAPC = 0.39), and the prevalence increasing from 29.65/100000 to 38.86/100000 (AAPC = 0.87). Over the same period, the death rate decreased from 2.98/100000 to 2.30/100000 (AAPC = - 0.84), whereas the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) decreased from 148.46/100000 to 115.42/100000 (AAPC = - 0.82). In 2021, East Asia and China had the highest burden of EOCRC regionally and nationally. Decomposition analysis indicated the increase in EOCRC burden was mainly driven by population growth. The concentration index revealed that high-SDI countries had a greater burden of EOCRC than low-SDI countries. The global incidence and prevalence of EOCRC will rise continuously from 2022 to 2030.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Between 1990 and 2021, the incidence and prevalence of EOCRC have escalated, whereas the death rate and DALY rate have declined. The burden varied with sex, SDI, and geographical locations. Given the rising trend of EOCRC burden, coordinated efforts are needed to reduce the burden posed by this malignancy.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":9188,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"BMC Medicine\",\"volume\":\"23 1\",\"pages\":\"34\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":7.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-01-21\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11753144/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"BMC Medicine\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-025-03867-9\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"BMC Medicine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-025-03867-9","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Global, regional, and national burden of early-onset colorectal cancer from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021.
Background: To provide estimates and trends for burdens of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) from 1990 to 2021 at the global, regional, and national levels, and to provide projections of EOCRC burden through 2030.
Methods: A trend analysis based on the Global Burden of Diseases 2021. The joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends on EOCRC burden by calculating the corresponding average annual percent changes (AAPCs). A decomposition analysis was used to understand the drivers of the changes in EOCRC burden. The relationship between socio-demographic index (SDI) and disease burden was assessed by the concentration index of inequality. In addition, we constructed a Bayesian age-period-cohort model to predict the burden of EOCRC worldwide from 2022 to 2030.
Results: Globally, the burden of EOCRC increased significantly between 1990 and 2021, with the incidence rising from 5.43/100000 to 6.13/100000 (AAPC = 0.39), and the prevalence increasing from 29.65/100000 to 38.86/100000 (AAPC = 0.87). Over the same period, the death rate decreased from 2.98/100000 to 2.30/100000 (AAPC = - 0.84), whereas the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) decreased from 148.46/100000 to 115.42/100000 (AAPC = - 0.82). In 2021, East Asia and China had the highest burden of EOCRC regionally and nationally. Decomposition analysis indicated the increase in EOCRC burden was mainly driven by population growth. The concentration index revealed that high-SDI countries had a greater burden of EOCRC than low-SDI countries. The global incidence and prevalence of EOCRC will rise continuously from 2022 to 2030.
Conclusions: Between 1990 and 2021, the incidence and prevalence of EOCRC have escalated, whereas the death rate and DALY rate have declined. The burden varied with sex, SDI, and geographical locations. Given the rising trend of EOCRC burden, coordinated efforts are needed to reduce the burden posed by this malignancy.
期刊介绍：
BMC Medicine is an open access, transparent peer-reviewed general medical journal. It is the flagship journal of the BMC series and publishes outstanding and influential research in various areas including clinical practice, translational medicine, medical and health advances, public health, global health, policy, and general topics of interest to the biomedical and sociomedical professional communities. In addition to research articles, the journal also publishes stimulating debates, reviews, unique forum articles, and concise tutorials. All articles published in BMC Medicine are included in various databases such as Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS, CAS, Citebase, Current contents, DOAJ, Embase, MEDLINE, PubMed, Science Citation Index Expanded, OAIster, SCImago, Scopus, SOCOLAR, and Zetoc.
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