Predicting the risk of high-grade precancerous cervical lesions based on high-risk HPV typing in Changsha China.

Background: Persistent infection with high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) is a significant risk factor for cervical cancer. HPV typing and cytology are conducted in women of appropriate age to assess the risk of cervical lesions and to guide the need for further diagnostic procedures such as colposcopy, cervical biopsy, or treatment. This article explores methods to predict the risks of high-grade precancerous cervical lesions based on high-risk HPV typing.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of HPV typing data from 158,565 women, including 19,707 who underwent ThinPrep cytologic testing (TCT), 7,539 who had colposcopy examinations, and 4,762 who had biopsies. We evaluated the sensitivity, specificity, and risk parameters of high-grade lesions associated with high-risk HPV types.

Results: (1) The overall prevalence of HPV infection was 17.89%, with the most prevalent types being HPV52 (4.44%), HPV58 (2.10%), HPV53 (1.96%), HPV81 (1.85%), HPV42 (1.75%), and HPV16 (1.44%). (2) The sensitivity and specificity of detecting high-grade lesions in TCT, colposcopy, and biopsy, based on high-risk HPV typing, demonstrated a strong linear correlation with the infection rate of each type. (3) HPV16 was confirmed to have a higher risk of CIN2 + in biopsies using a self-defined risk parameter. (4) The top five HPV types with the highest PPVs and pathogenicity risks in biopsies were HPV45, HPV16, HPV58, HPV33, and HPV18.

Conclusion: In Changsha, China, HPV52, HPV58, and HPV53 were the most prevalent and contributed significantly to high-grade lesions. After adjusting for infection rates, a self-defined risk parameter was proposed as a measure of the intrinsic risks of high-grade lesions associated with high-risk HPV types. Focused monitoring of prevalent high-risk HPV types such as HPV45, HPV16, HPV58, HPV33, and HPV18, which show the highest pathogenicity risks, is recommended in our region.