Anthropogenic Disturbance and Climate Change Impacts on the Suitable Habitat of Sphenomorphus incognitus in China

Estimating the impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change on species' spatial distributions is crucial for conservation. In this study, based on 62 valid occurrence records of Sphenomorphus incognitus and 24 environmental factors (19 climate factors, 4 topographic factors, and 1 human activity factor), we utilized the biomod2 combined model platform to predict suitable habitats for S. incognitus under two current scenarios (Scenario 1: natural state; Scenario 2: human interference state) and two future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) in 2050s and 2090s. The mean true skill statistic (TSS) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) suggested that the ensemble model yield more precise predictions than those of individual models. Rainfall and slope were identified as the most important factors influencing S. incognitus distribution. Human disturbance has significantly reduced suitable habitat by 44.13 × 10⁴ km², which is a decrease in 23.95% compared to natural conditions. Spatial analysis revealed substantial fragmentation of suitable habitat due to human activities. The incorporation of anthropogenic factors into the analysis of future climate scenarios has revealed that the area of suitable habitat exhibits divergent trends. Two distinct scenarios have been identified, each of which results in a reduction in the area of the region by 29.58 × 10⁴ km² and an increase by 27.04 × 10⁴ km², respectively, by the year 2090. The primary influence persists in human activities. The centroid of suitable habitat shifted toward the southeast under SSP1-2.6 and toward the northwest under SSP5-8.5. Our findings highlight the significant impact of anthropogenic factors on S. incognitus habitat and emphasize the need for conservation measures. Future research should incorporate additional socioeconomic data to further investigate the effects of human disturbance on this species.