Emerging trends in managed care pharmacy: A mixed-method study.

Background: Over the past 5 years, managed care pharmacy has been shaped by a global pandemic, advancements in generative artificial intelligence (AI), Medicare drug price negotiation policies, and significant therapeutic developments. Collective intelligence methods can be used to anticipate future developments in practice to help organizations plan and develop new strategies around those changes.

Objective: To identify emerging trends in managed care pharmacy.

Methods: In this sequential mixed-method study, we invited experts to participate in a multidisciplinary advisory panel to develop a survey with 5 overarching domains. The qualitative analysis for our advisory panel meetings used a thematic analysis approach. To analyze the cross-sectional survey results, we used descriptive statistics and exploratory bivariate statistics to test for possible relationships with survey respondent demographics and likelihood predictions. To assess respondent opinions on the overall likelihood of an event occurring in the next 5 years, we combined "Highly likely/Somewhat likely" responses and compared with "Highly unlikely/Somewhat unlikely" responses.

Results: Following our advisory panel focus groups, a total of 53 scenarios were developed for inclusion in the quantitative survey under the domains of (1) information technology, (2) therapeutics and diagnostics, (3) payment models, (4) pharmacy operations, and (5) public policy. A total of 1,238 individuals were invited to participate in the survey. Of eligible participants, 201 complete survey responses were received for a final response rate of 16.2%. Survey participants rated increased use of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists by at least 25%, at least 1 major data breach, more than 10 new orphan drug approvals, and AI use in more than half of prior authorization reviews as the most likely scenarios to occur in the next 5 years. Respondents identified the following broad issues as those most likely to impact their organizations (employers) in the next 5 years: federal and state policy changes impacting managed care, cell and gene therapies, impact of AI on managed care operations, and emerging payment models.

Conclusions: This study provides valuable insights into the emerging trends that are expected to shape managed care pharmacy over the next 5 years. The integration of advanced technologies, such as AI, along with the increasing focus on specialty therapeutics, represents both opportunities and challenges for managed care organizations. However, areas with lower consensus highlight the need for caution in strategic planning.